Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:20:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2D
0x2de1…5d86
sports · 613 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$129 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$82 · open +$22
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$165
Realized+$82
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses228 / 342
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions42
Markets (closed)570 / 613
History coverage716d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 42 History 570 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days+$26
30 days+$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? Yes 37¢ 83¢ $15 $33 +$18 (+124%)
Will Viktor Gyökeres score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will Luis Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+27%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+41%)
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Yes 17¢ 33¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+94%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+13%)
Will Matheus Cunha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Bukayo Saka score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 63¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+23%)
Will Antoine Semenyo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 55¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+33%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 15¢ 25¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+70%)
Will Alexander Isak score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 52¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-17%)
Will Rayan Cherki score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 64¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Declan Rice score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 52¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+39%)
Will Amad Diallo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 60¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+29%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-14%)
Will Marcus Thuram score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 53¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+25%)
Will Leandro Trossard score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 64¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Will Bradley Barcola score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 47¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mikel Merino score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Folarin Balogun score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +57%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +44%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 +$1 +146%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lennart Kahl score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 06 $5 +$12 +228%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in June? Jun 05 $7 +$10 +139%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 04 $10 +$10 +97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $18 +$19 +105%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bukayo Saka: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Desire Doue: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Viktor Gyokeres: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $2 +$2 +90%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 30 $2 +$2 +109%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $2 +$4 +226%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 19 $32 +$81 +254%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bukayo Saka: Anytime Goalscorer May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Declan Rice: Anytime Goalscorer May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? May 15 $5 +$8 +165%
Michael Olise: Anytime Goalscorer May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer May 06 $1 +$2 +158%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 06 $2 +$1 +57%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Viktor Gyokeres: Anytime Goalscorer May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5 May 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 25 $1 +$1 +73%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $5 +$20 +408%
Southampton FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 05 $1 +$1 +96%
Southampton FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 05 $2 +$1 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 70% −$118
sports 18% +$72
other 10% +$135
politics 1% +$20
world 0% +$6
weather 0% −$3
finance 0% −$5
economics 0% −$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $2 1h
Will Igor Thiago score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 1h
Will Marcus Thuram score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 52¢ $2 1h
Will Alexander Isak score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $4 1h
Will Marcus Thuram score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 1h
Will Marcus Thuram score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 1h
Will Teun Koopmeiners score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will Nicolas Pépé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 1h
Will Pedri score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 4h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 33¢ $3 2d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 40¢ $1 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $1 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 3d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? BUY No 24¢ $1 7d
Will Nick Woltemade score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 8d
Will Bradley Barcola score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 8d
Will Mikel Merino score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 8d
Will Gabriel Magalhães score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 8d
Will Viktor Gyökeres score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $16 8d
Will Lennart Kahl score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8d
Will Luis Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 81¢ $14 9d
Will Folarin Balogun score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 9d
Will Rayan Cherki score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -22.0% -29.4% 43% 43% -10.8%
≤30d 34 -23.7% -30.9% 32% 32% +77.2%
≤90d 55 -17.9% -25.7% 35% 35% +68.1%
all 570 -13.8% -22.0% 40% 37% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 37% -8.5%
10% -29.5% 34% -17.3%
15% -36.3% 31% -25.3%
20% -42.5% 28% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $164.69 · official $164.69 (match) · 1902 history records