Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:36:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2D 0x2dda…bb91 crypto 71 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$385 (+7%) realized +$385 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate63%44W / 26L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$357
7 days+$409
14 days+$409
30 days+$404
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$344
other 3% +$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 +5.2% -4.8% 64% 57% -1.7%
≤30d 70 +3.7% -6.1% 63% 56% -1.8%
≤90d 70 +3.7% -6.1% 63% 56% -1.8%
all 70 +3.7% -6.1% 63% 56% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 56% -1.8%
10% -15.1% 51% -11.2%
15% -23.3% 41% -19.8%
20% -30.8% 30% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$50 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$385
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses44 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage26d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12PM ET Jun 26 $53 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $52 +$81 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 26 $52 −$32 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $52 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 26 $52 −$37 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 26 $51 +$27 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $155 −$100 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $156 +$48 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $207 +$189 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $102 −$94 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $102 +$26 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 26 $103 −$88 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 26 $51 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11AM ET Jun 26 $103 +$42 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 26 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 26 $52 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $50 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 25 $103 +$61 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 25 $155 −$50 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $52 +$38 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 25 $101 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $204 +$36 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 25 $103 +$77 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 25 $102 +$27 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $154 −$100 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$49 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 25 $52 +$46 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 25 $107 +$69 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 25 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 25 $103 −$96 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$31 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 25 $53 +$35 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 25 $53 +$59 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 25 $52 +$28 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$21 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$23 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$34 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$17 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET Jun 25 $101 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$23 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 25 $52 +$44 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $153 −$115 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $64 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $53 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $133 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $52 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $20 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $52 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $15 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $51 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $37 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $51 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $52 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $71 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $52 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $40 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $52 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $397 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $128 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $51 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 157 history records