Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:16:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2dd7…2bbe crypto 484 markets active 1d ago coverage 595d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$254 (-11%) realized −$253 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate58%277W / 204L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$45
14 days−$36
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$31
politics 15% −$131
sports 12% −$52
other 7% −$21
world 1% −$29
weather 1% −$19
economics 1% −$6
tech 1% −$11
finance 0% +$7
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -22.6% -29.9% 42% 13% -22.8%
≤30d 132 -10.9% -19.4% 55% 14% -13.2%
≤90d 350 -4.6% -13.7% 68% 24% -12.8%
all 481 -8.8% -17.4% 58% 24% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 24% -21.2%
10% -25.3% 13% -28.7%
15% -32.6% 10% -35.6%
20% -39.2% 6% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

595d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$253
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses277 / 204
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)481 / 484
History coverage595d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 481 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 48¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $43 −$21 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $42 −$5 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$3 -20%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -52%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 10 $23 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$2 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 10 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 10 $40 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 10 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 10 $12 −$4 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $19 +$5 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $21 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $0 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $3 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 29h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 29h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.35 · official $3.35 (match) · 1784 history records