Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:53:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2D 0x2dd7…55a0 weather 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$262 (+22%) realized +$268 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%18W / 19L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$171
7 days+$309
14 days+$242
30 days+$242
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 92% +$219
other 8% +$20
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +54.2% +39.5% 61% 61% +23.3%
≤30d 37 +29.3% +17.0% 49% 49% +11.7%
≤90d 37 +29.3% +17.0% 49% 49% +11.7%
all 37 +29.3% +17.0% 49% 49% +11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.0% 49% +11.7%
10% +5.8% 46% +1.0%
15% -4.5% 38% -8.8%
20% -13.8% 32% -17.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$10 · ×2.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.24 per $1 lost it wins $2.24
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized+$268
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses18 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)37 / 40
History coverage8d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 58¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 24? Yes 31¢ 41¢ $12 $17 +$4 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 24? Yes 31¢ 22¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 23? Jun 23 $21 −$17 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 +$45 +867%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? Jun 23 $51 +$36 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 23? Jun 23 $151 +$26 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 23? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$24 +118%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 +$6 +124%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $21 +$29 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $21 +$70 +338%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $21 −$13 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $31 +$27 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 21? Jun 21 $21 +$26 +129%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $101 +$24 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $51 +$24 +47%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$6 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $51 +$15 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $21 −$15 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $51 +$15 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $21 +$38 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $56 −$7 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $57 −$29 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 +$14 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $33 −$13 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $101 −$38 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 −$5 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$7 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 −$8 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$7 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 24? SELL Yes 29¢ $12 20m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 24? SELL Yes 33¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 24? BUY Yes 31¢ $52 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 24? SELL Yes 23¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 24? BUY Yes 31¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 24? SELL Yes 20¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 24? BUY Yes 23¢ $21 11h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 16h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 16h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 23? SELL No 1¢ $1 18h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 18h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 23? BUY No 23¢ $10 19h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 23? BUY No 38¢ $10 20h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 23? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 24h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 23? BUY No 83¢ $50 27h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 28h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 23? BUY Yes 19¢ $21 31h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 31h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 23? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 31h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 23? BUY No 86¢ $101 31h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? BUY Yes 59¢ $31 31h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 38h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 38h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 22? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 43h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 22? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 43h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? BUY Yes 40¢ $21 45h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 22? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 45h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 22? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.94 · official $66.94 (match) · 109 history records