Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2D 0x2dd7…28d2 sports 219 markets active 2h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,655 (+5%) realized +$1,655 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%95W / 123L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$328est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,003
7 days+$3,211
14 days+$2,479
30 days+$3,719
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$1,573
crypto 23% −$949
other 15% +$1,106
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +38.8% +25.6% 68% 68% +25.8%
≤30d 99 +9.4% -1.0% 52% 51% +6.0%
≤90d 218 -9.9% -18.5% 44% 43% -4.7%
all 218 -9.9% -18.5% 44% 43% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 43% -4.7%
10% -26.3% 43% -13.8%
15% -33.4% 42% -22.2%
20% -39.9% 40% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -19% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$155 vs −$106 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,655
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses95 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$328
Open positions0
Markets (closed)218 / 219
History coverage41d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 218 Trades
no open positions (114 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $255 +$374 +147%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 +$3 +52%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $315 +$184 +59%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $260 −$256 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $941 +$449 +48%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $301 +$248 +82%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $66 +$74 +113%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $307 +$216 +70%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $748 −$136 -18%
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals Jun 14 $256 +$458 +179%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $309 −$305 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $940 +$579 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $359 −$359 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $161 −$75 -47%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $277 +$228 +82%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $160 +$117 +73%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $220 +$105 +48%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $308 +$361 +117%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $203 +$222 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $56 +$144 +257%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $231 −$228 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $118 −$117 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 212.5 Jun 11 $697 +$473 +68%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 11 $705 +$495 +70%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 10 $219 +$211 +96%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $130 +$99 +76%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $102 +$107 +105%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Legacy (-3.5) vs TYLOO (+3.5) Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 09 $272 +$225 +83%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $432 +$334 +77%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $69 −$68 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $331 −$329 -99%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $218 −$216 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $332 −$328 -99%
Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 07 $140 −$140 -100%
Argentina vs. Honduras: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $162 +$109 +67%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $108 +$92 +85%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $68 −$68 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $68 +$56 +82%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $60 +$60 +100%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $309 −$11 -4%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $886 −$876 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 211.5 Jun 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $106 −$106 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 Jun 04 $302 +$196 +65%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 04 $5 +$5 +90%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 03 $309 −$305 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $102 +$91 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $6 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $499 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $315 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $260 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $941 32h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 40¢ $255 32h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $438 43h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $111 43h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $141 46h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $160 46h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will En BUY 27¢ $161 2d
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals BUY No 47¢ $59 2d
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals BUY No 47¢ $4 2d
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals BUY No 47¢ $3 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $307 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 44¢ $289 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 44¢ $4 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 44¢ $1 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 44¢ $227 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 44¢ $87 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 44¢ $4 3d
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $25 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $748 3d
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $2 3d
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $229 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 39¢ $46 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $309 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,519 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $359 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 26¢ $85 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 584 history records