Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:07:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
2D 0x2dd6…5dda world 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 327d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$497 (+12%) realized +$508 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate47%27W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$104
7 days+$104
14 days+$104
30 days+$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% +$831
world 23% +$86
culture 12% −$268
other 6% −$24
economics 3% −$88
crypto 2% −$67
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +90.6% +72.4% 100% 100% +72.4%
≤30d 1 +90.6% +72.4% 100% 100% +72.4%
≤90d 6 +52.8% +38.2% 100% 83% +67.7%
all 58 +12.3% +1.6% 47% 38% +1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.6% 38% +1.8%
10% -8.1% 33% -8.0%
15% -17.0% 26% -16.9%
20% -25.1% 22% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 59% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +85% too few recent
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$54 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

327d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized+$508
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses27 / 31
Open positions6
Markets (closed)58 / 64
History coverage327d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 12¢ 9¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 28 $115 +$104 +91%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 23 $70 +$25 +36%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $13 +$7 +54%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 19 $60 +$3 +5%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? May 19 $15 +$5 +32%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? Apr 30 $630 +$627 +100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Biden" 3+ times during Ukraine President events Mar 15 $10 −$10 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by December 31 Mar 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 9? Jan 07 $15 +$4 +24%
Will Donald Trump say "Putin" 3+ times during Ukraine President events Dec 29 $35 +$28 +81%
Will Donald Trump say "eighth war" or "eight wars" during Ukraine Pres Dec 29 $56 +$26 +45%
US government shutdown Saturday? Dec 28 $37 −$2 -5%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in December? Dec 28 $39 +$57 +147%
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in December? Dec 25 $40 −$33 -83%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 17 $60 +$19 +31%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? Dec 16 $797 −$737 -92%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15? Nov 28 $36 +$31 +85%
Will Trump remove 10% blanket tariff in 2025? Nov 24 $90 −$54 -60%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31? Nov 18 $101 −$56 -55%
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? Nov 07 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025? Nov 07 $20 +$1 +7%
US forces in Venezuela by December 31? Nov 06 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025? Nov 01 $60 +$158 +264%
Current shutdown longest in U.S. history? Oct 28 $35 +$21 +61%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Oct 15 $45 −$14 -31%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? Oct 15 $26 +$3 +11%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? Oct 15 $20 +$5 +24%
Trump pause or remove 100k H-1B policy by October 31? Oct 15 $4 −$3 -78%
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31? Oct 15 $102 −$58 -56%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Oct 11 $36 −$20 -56%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12? Oct 10 $68 +$72 +106%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 15? Oct 10 $36 +$2 +6%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 10 $70 −$69 -98%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 10 $166 −$165 -99%
Will Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières) win the Nobel Oct 10 $55 +$7 +14%
Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 20 Oct 10 $171 −$41 -24%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? Oct 09 $50 −$24 -47%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together in 2025? Oct 09 $91 −$67 -74%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in September? Sep 30 $34 −$34 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Sep 30 $28 −$11 -41%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? Sep 23 $10 −$6 -62%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 23 $23 −$22 -98%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 10 $83 −$68 -82%
Will Netanyahu meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2025? Aug 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by August 31? Aug 23 $56 +$609 +1093%
Trump x Epstein files made public in 2025? Aug 22 $65 +$229 +352%
Will Trump say "Biden's war" during conference with Putin on August 15 Aug 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Biden" 3+ times during conference with Putin on August Aug 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $40 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 1h
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $25 1h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $5 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 12¢ $20 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 37¢ $30 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $219 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 52¢ $65 35d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $95 35d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $20 35d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 48¢ $13 39d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $70 39d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $63 39d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $20 39d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $60 59d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 52¢ $50 59d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 59d
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? SELL Yes 69¢ $1,225 59d
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? BUY Yes 35¢ $334 105d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 105d
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? SELL Yes 31¢ $20 105d
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? BUY Yes 31¢ $226 112d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? BUY Yes 29¢ $17 115d
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? BUY Yes 28¢ $40 115d
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? BUY Yes 49¢ $12 172d
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? SELL No 51¢ $6 172d
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? SELL No 85¢ $5 172d
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 9? SELL Yes 99¢ $19 172d
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 9? BUY Yes 80¢ $15 181d
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by December 31 BUY Yes 18¢ $10 181d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.21 · official $139.21 (match) · 205 history records