Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:50:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2D 0x2dd2…f5df other 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$152 (+9%) realized +$155 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate71%12W / 5L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$184
14 days+$184
30 days+$184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% +$11
other 49% +$170
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -0.9% -10.4% 71% 53% +2.8%
≤30d 17 -0.9% -10.4% 71% 53% +2.8%
≤90d 17 -0.9% -10.4% 71% 53% +2.8%
all 17 -0.9% -10.4% 71% 53% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 53% +2.8%
10% -18.9% 29% -7.0%
15% -26.8% 18% -16.0%
20% -33.9% 12% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$13 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.9 per $1 lost it wins $3.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$155
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses12 / 5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)17 / 19
History coverage38d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 62¢ 57¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-8%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 25 $126 +$40 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $202 −$25 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 25 $151 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 25 $127 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 25 $51 −$6 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 25 $76 +$11 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$5 -16%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $181 +$33 +18%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AN Jun 25 $25 +$27 +107%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $153 +$30 +19%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $30 +$14 +48%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $148 +$16 +11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $98 +$51 +52%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Jun 21 $5 −$2 -43%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Jun 21 $90 +$4 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $206 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $160 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $29 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.78 · official $51.78 (match) · 51 history records