Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:50:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2dd1…8cad sports 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$37,454 (-7%) realized −$41,376 · open +$3,922
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate53%31W / 27L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8,270per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$841est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$68,855now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,466
7 days+$1,254
14 days+$812
30 days+$786
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$32,919
other 2% −$442
crypto 1% +$156
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -9.3% -18.0% 17% 17% -4.9%
≤30d 8 -9.2% -17.8% 12% 12% -7.5%
≤90d 8 -9.2% -17.8% 12% 12% -7.5%
all 58 -5.0% -14.1% 53% 41% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 41% -16.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 34% -24.6%
15% -29.8% 21% -31.9%
20% -36.7% 10% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$4,835) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,660 vs −$3,281 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$68,855
Realized−$41,376
Unrealized+$3,922
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses31 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$841
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 63
History coverage250d
Avg bet$8,270
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 89¢ 94¢ $64,933 $68,855 +$3,922 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $8,204 +$7,706 +94%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $6,721 −$3,523 -52%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $3,774 −$1,852 -49%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,214 −$69 -6%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $2,507 −$796 -32%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $1,913 −$212 -11%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9,954 −$442 -4%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $208 −$26 -13%
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $1,340 −$136 -10%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Sinners - Map 1 Winner Jan 16 $271 −$92 -34%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Dec 14 $614 +$406 +66%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO5) Dec 14 $430 −$80 -19%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 12 $2,270 −$2,270 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FaZe (BO3) Dec 12 $3,157 +$1,299 +41%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) Dec 12 $1,467 +$883 +60%
Chiefs vs. Cowboys Nov 28 $2,747 +$1,312 +48%
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs The Huns Esports - Map 2 Winner Nov 27 $604 +$284 +47%
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs NIP - Map 1 Winner Nov 26 $188 +$12 +6%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Nov 26 $201 +$74 +37%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Legacy (BO3) Nov 26 $493 +$168 +34%
Heat vs. 76ers Nov 23 $455 +$211 +46%
Rockets vs. Spurs Nov 08 $3,289 +$884 +27%
Rockets vs. Spurs Nov 08 $292 +$904 +310%
Warriors vs. Nuggets Nov 08 $610 −$610 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 03 $6,580 +$420 +6%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Oct 31 $4,835 +$156 +3%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $38,499 −$38,498 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Oct 31 $8,352 −$5,480 -66%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Oct 31 $1,994 −$1,994 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 30 $4,257 −$4,257 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Oct 30 $2,027 −$2,027 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Oct 30 $160 −$160 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Oct 29 $97,065 +$6,196 +6%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) Oct 28 $19,895 +$3,064 +15%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Oct 28 $2,187 +$563 +26%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner Oct 28 $4,464 −$191 -4%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Oct 25 $2,702 +$2,993 +111%
LoL: T1 vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner Oct 25 $4,306 −$4,306 -100%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner Oct 25 $23 +$4 +18%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs FlyQuest (BO3) Oct 25 $11,209 +$2,629 +24%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) Oct 25 $8,929 −$8,929 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Oct 25 $520 +$20 +4%
LoL: 100 Thieves vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Oct 25 $3,624 +$952 +26%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner Oct 24 $770 −$669 -87%
LoL: Gen.G vs Top Esports (BO3) Oct 23 $73,783 +$7,449 +10%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Secret Whales (BO3) Oct 23 $8,198 −$3,502 -43%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Secret Whales - Game 1 Winner Oct 23 $4,526 −$4,526 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner Oct 22 $1,920 +$580 +30%
LoL: G2 Esports vs FlyQuest (BO3) Oct 22 $18,026 +$2,388 +13%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3) Oct 22 $34,393 +$5,307 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 89¢ $14,287 47m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 89¢ $8,929 49m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 89¢ $26,788 51m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 89¢ $1,786 53m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 89¢ $3,572 54m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 89¢ $5,358 54m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 88¢ $4,416 57m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 73¢ $2,398 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 75¢ $13 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 75¢ $1,806 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 77¢ $78 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 77¢ $14 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 77¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 76¢ $621 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 77¢ $29 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 77¢ $58 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 77¢ $45 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 77¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 77¢ $250 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 77¢ $26 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 77¢ $49 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 82¢ $648 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 82¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 82¢ $21 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 82¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 82¢ $36 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 82¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 82¢ $83 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 82¢ $456 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 82¢ $100 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68,855.29 · official $69,739.43 · 562 history records