Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:54:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2D 0x2dd1…1781 world 7 markets active 6d ago coverage 57d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-33%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -68% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -71% what you keep after slip
Net edge-71%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$6
crypto 26% $0
politics 19% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-71.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -36.7% -42.7% 50% 50% -39.0%
≤90d 4 -68.4% -71.4% 25% 25% -62.0%
all 4 -68.4% -71.4% 25% 25% -62.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -71.4% 25% -62.0%
10% -74.1% 25% -65.7%
15% -76.6% 0% -69.0%
20% -78.9% 0% -72.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -68% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage57d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 66¢ 75¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+14%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 59¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $3 +$1 +27%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 59¢ $2 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $3 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $3 21d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 66¢ $3 34d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 30¢ $2 40d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 55d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 79¢ $3 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.95 · official $7.96 (match) · 8 history records