Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:17:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2D 0x2dd0…e441 crypto 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 577d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$611 (-9%) realized −$611 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate65%41W / 22L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% −$2
crypto 28% −$610
other 27% $0
economics 3% $0
world 1% $0
culture 0% +$1
politics 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 1 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 3 +1.7% -7.9% 100% 0% -8.0%
all 63 -5.0% -14.1% 65% 2% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 2% -17.3%
10% -22.3% 0% -25.2%
15% -29.8% 0% -32.5%
20% -36.7% 0% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$29 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

577d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$611
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses41 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage577d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 22 $30 $0 +1%
Will "Choosin' Texas" by Ella Langley be the Billboard #1 song for the Apr 22 $29 +$1 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? Mar 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $20 mi Feb 23 $30 +$1 +4%
Interstellar object confirmed aliens? Jan 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.20 in November? Dec 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $94,000 on November 12? Nov 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on November Nov 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 8? Nov 10 $1,100 +$1 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 11AM ET Nov 07 $592 −$592 -100%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? Nov 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in October? Nov 07 $5 $0 +1%
Meteora FDV above $500M one day after launch? Nov 07 $5 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Nov 07 $6 $0 +1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 09 $520 −$1 -0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 09 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in September? Oct 09 $12 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Sep 25 $12 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $105K and $107K on July 14? Aug 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $110000 on May 16? May 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $93000 and $95000 on May 9? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in April? May 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000.00 by March 31? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 7? Mar 09 $10 $0 +0%
Ripple above $2.15 on March 7? Mar 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 22 $1,064 $0 +0%
Will Micheal Martin be the next Prime Minister of Ireland? Feb 01 $1 $0 +6%
Will Simon Harris be the next Prime Minister of Ireland? Feb 01 $1 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 01 $5 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 01 $5 $0 +9%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,750 by January 31? Feb 01 $5 +$1 +16%
Ethereum all time high in 2024? Jan 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will Zoran Milanović be the next President of Croatia? Jan 16 $1 $0 +6%
Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO in 2024? Jan 16 $1 $0 +0%
FTX doesn't start payouts in 2024? Jan 16 $1 $0 +1%
'Mufasa' vs. 'Sonic 3' opening weekend box office? Dec 29 $2 $0 +9%
Will RFK Jr. win <1% of the popular vote? Dec 20 $1 $0 +1%
Will Kamala Harris win Vermont by the largest margin? Dec 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Social Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the Icelandi Dec 05 $1 $0 +3%
Will another party win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary el Dec 05 $1 $0 +3%
CA-13 election: Gray (D) vs. Duarte (R) Dec 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Harris win Maine by 5+ points? Dec 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Bears win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Dec 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Nottingham Forest wins the Premier League? Nov 28 $4 $0 -0%
Will Trump do better in Ohio or Texas? Nov 28 $2 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $30 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $30 60d
Will "Choosin' Texas" by Ella Langley be the Billboard #1 song for the BUY Yes 96¢ $10 102d
Will "Choosin' Texas" by Ella Langley be the Billboard #1 song for the BUY Yes 96¢ $3 102d
Will "Choosin' Texas" by Ella Langley be the Billboard #1 song for the BUY Yes 96¢ $2 102d
Will "Choosin' Texas" by Ella Langley be the Billboard #1 song for the BUY Yes 96¢ $4 102d
Will "Choosin' Texas" by Ella Langley be the Billboard #1 song for the BUY Yes 96¢ $5 102d
Will "Choosin' Texas" by Ella Langley be the Billboard #1 song for the BUY Yes 96¢ $5 102d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 117d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 117d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 117d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 117d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 117d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 117d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 117d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 117d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 117d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 117d
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $20 mi BUY No 96¢ $30 159d
Interstellar object confirmed aliens? BUY No 100¢ $30 178d
Will XRP reach $4.20 in November? BUY No 100¢ $30 210d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $94,000 on November 12? BUY No 100¢ $30 223d
Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 11AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $592 226d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 8? BUY No 100¢ $1,100 226d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on November BUY No 100¢ $24 226d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? BUY No 99¢ $6 244d
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in October? BUY No 99¢ $5 244d
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? BUY No 100¢ $5 244d
Meteora FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 244d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.98 · official $29.98 (match) · 150 history records