Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:38:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2D 0x2dcd…1f66 crypto 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-3%) realized −$13 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate63%37W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$49
sports 14% +$24
other 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +11.4% +0.8% 50% 50% +2.1%
≤30d 2 +11.4% +0.8% 50% 50% +2.1%
≤90d 3 +129.1% +107.3% 67% 67% +35.7%
all 59 +3.1% -6.7% 63% 56% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 56% -13.6%
10% -15.6% 53% -21.9%
15% -23.8% 37% -29.4%
20% -31.3% 19% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% too few recent
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses37 / 22
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)59 / 61
History coverage109d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Yes 71¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 28¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $20 −$2 -9%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $23 +$7 +32%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $5 +$19 +364%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 07 $6 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 07 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 07 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 07 $12 −$11 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 07 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 07 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 07 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Mar 07 $5 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Mar 07 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Mar 07 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Mar 07 $5 −$4 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Mar 07 $20 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Mar 07 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Mar 02 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Mar 01 $2 −$1 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Mar 01 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Feb 28 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Feb 28 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Feb 28 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Feb 27 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Feb 27 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Feb 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Feb 26 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Feb 26 $9 −$4 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Feb 26 $10 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Feb 26 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Feb 26 $5 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Feb 26 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Feb 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Feb 26 $7 −$5 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Feb 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Feb 26 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Feb 26 $5 +$4 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Feb 26 $34 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Feb 26 $15 +$10 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Feb 26 $15 −$7 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Feb 26 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Feb 26 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Feb 26 $15 −$10 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Feb 26 $15 +$6 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Feb 26 $10 +$7 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Feb 26 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Feb 26 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Feb 26 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Feb 26 $10 +$3 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 20¢ $6 34m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 28¢ $9 37m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 34¢ $8 40m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 84¢ $20 45m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 6¢ $1 47m
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 75¢ $18 53m
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $5 1h
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 29h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 29h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $3 29h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $18 29h
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Strickland 100¢ $24 36d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 21¢ $5 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $20 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $1 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $3 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $15 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $10 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $7 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 135 history records