Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:16:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2D 0x2dcd…1cac other 141 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+0%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate13%18W / 122L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$276per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$22
politics 33% −$281
sports 7% +$58
economics 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
tech 1% −$1
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 97 -1.1% -10.6% 4% 0% -10.4%
all 140 +2.0% -7.7% 13% 6% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 6% -10.1%
10% -16.5% 4% -18.7%
15% -24.6% 4% -26.6%
20% -32.0% 4% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses18 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)140 / 141
History coverage124d
Avg bet$276
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $350 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $779 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $305 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $50 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $252 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $225 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $235 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $415 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $271 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $244 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $236 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $304 −$1 -0%
Will Alexei Popyrin win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 17 $311 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $968 −$1 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $237 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $244 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $465 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $271 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $281 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 06 $212 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $278 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $264 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $293 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $295 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $291 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 02 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $265 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $243 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $266 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $265 −$265 -100%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $300 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $224 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $248 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $229 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 20 $268 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $253 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $545 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 2h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $41 4d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $41 5d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 5d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 5d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $47 5d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $47 5d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $33 7d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $33 8d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $51 8d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $51 8d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $47 10d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $47 10d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 11d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 12d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $252 22d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $252 22d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $281 22d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $281 23d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $287 24d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $287 24d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $225 25d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $225 25d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $235 26d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $235 26d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $236 26d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $236 27d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $237 28d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $237 29d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $271 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.99 · official $27.99 (match) · 404 history records