Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:17:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2D 0x2dcb…99cd weather 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-3%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate58%57W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 87% −$2
world 7% −$3
crypto 5% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -6.6% -15.5% 50% 33% -19.6%
≤30d 6 -6.6% -15.5% 50% 33% -19.6%
≤90d 98 -7.2% -16.1% 58% 55% -12.5%
all 98 -7.2% -16.1% 58% 55% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 55% -12.5%
10% -24.1% 53% -20.8%
15% -31.4% 39% -28.5%
20% -38.2% 17% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses57 / 41
Open positions0
Markets (closed)98 / 98
History coverage51d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 98 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -61%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $3 $0 -11%
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 11? May 11 $5 +$3 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 11? May 11 $5 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 10? May 11 $5 +$3 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 10? May 10 $5 +$3 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 10? May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 8? May 09 $1 $0 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 8? May 09 $1 $0 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 8? May 09 $1 $0 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 10? May 09 $1 $0 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 8? May 09 $1 $0 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on May 8? May 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on May 8? May 09 $1 +$1 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 9? May 09 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 9? May 09 $1 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 9? May 09 $1 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 9? May 09 $1 $0 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 9? May 09 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 8? May 08 $1 +$1 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 7? May 08 $1 $0 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 7? May 08 $1 $0 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 8? May 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on May 7? May 08 $1 $0 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 7? May 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on May 7? May 07 $1 $0 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 7? May 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 7? May 07 $1 $0 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on May 7? May 07 $1 $0 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 6? May 07 $1 +$1 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 6? May 07 $1 $0 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 6? May 07 $1 +$1 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on May 6? May 07 $1 $0 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 6? May 07 $1 +$1 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on May 6? May 07 $1 $0 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on May 8? May 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 36-37°F on May 6? May 07 $1 $0 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on May 7? May 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 6? May 06 $1 $0 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 6? May 06 $1 +$1 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 5? May 06 $1 +$1 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 5? May 06 $1 $0 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May May 06 $1 +$1 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 61°F or below on May 6? May 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 7? May 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 5? May 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 1h
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 30d
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 30d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 30d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 11? SELL No 95¢ $8 36d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 11? SELL No 61¢ $5 36d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 11? BUY No 62¢ $5 36d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 11? BUY No 62¢ $0 36d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 10? BUY No 62¢ $2 36d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 10? BUY No 62¢ $2 37d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 10? BUY No 62¢ $2 37d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 10? BUY No 62¢ $4 37d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 10? BUY No 62¢ $1 37d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 11? BUY No 62¢ $5 37d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 10? BUY No 62¢ $1 38d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 10? BUY No 62¢ $4 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 189 history records