Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:11:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2dca…4bc5 weather 824 markets active 2h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$369 (-0%) realized −$209 · open −$160
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate80%626W / 158L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$5,597now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days−$511
14 days−$496
30 days−$497
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 44% −$230
world 22% +$167
other 17% −$211
sports 14% −$50
crypto 2% −$123
finance 1% −$109
tech 1% +$19
economics 0% +$5
politics 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -5.1% -14.2% 74% 13% -12.5%
≤30d 72 -4.6% -13.7% 79% 10% -11.1%
≤90d 407 -17.5% -25.4% 69% 16% -11.4%
all 784 -1.7% -11.0% 80% 24% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 24% -9.7%
10% -19.5% 15% -18.4%
15% -27.3% 9% -26.3%
20% -34.4% 7% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$40 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$5,597
Realized−$209
Unrealized−$160
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses626 / 158
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions40
Markets (closed)784 / 824
History coverage166d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 784 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $470 $503 +$33 (+7%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $381 $380 −$1 (-0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $376 $379 +$3 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $293 $293 +$0 (+0%)
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $278 $280 +$1 (+1%)
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $258 $259 +$1 (+1%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $250 $250 +$0 (+0%)
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $250 $250 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 95¢ $250 $247 −$3 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $209 $201 −$8 (-4%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 91¢ $191 $185 −$6 (-3%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $178 $179 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 −$0 (-0%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $134 $126 −$8 (-6%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $166 $124 −$41 (-25%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $138 $109 −$29 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? No 97¢ 97¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 19? No 98¢ 93¢ $103 $99 −$5 (-5%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 19? No 96¢ 94¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 19? No 99¢ 95¢ $99 $95 −$4 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $95 $95 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $93 $93 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $103 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? Jun 18 $300 +$3 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 18 $381 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $103 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $164 −$13 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $89 $0 +0%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 18 $200 +$4 +2%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 18 $250 +$7 +3%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 18 $381 +$5 +1%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 16 $381 +$7 +2%
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $250 $0 -0%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $595 +$15 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 15 $7,166 +$217 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $160 −$139 -87%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $721 −$719 -100%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $250 −$2 -1%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 15 $88 +$30 +34%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $110 −$12 -11%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $250 +$5 +2%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $257 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $43 +$9 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $26 −$5 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $41 −$3 -8%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 14 $382 +$4 +1%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 14 $327 +$4 +1%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $381 +$1 +0%
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30? Jun 14 $381 +$4 +1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 14 $382 +$5 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 14 $381 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $31 +$9 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$4 -41%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $325 +$27 +8%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $19 +$4 +19%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $110 +$7 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 13 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 08 $191 +$13 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $200 +$11 +5%
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30? Jun 07 $381 +$4 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $223 +$48 +21%
Will Romania win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $120 +$13 +10%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $32 +$3 +9%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $50 +$5 +11%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $81 −$80 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 1? Jun 02 $627 +$1 +0%
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $758 +$15 +2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $973 +$10 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $84 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $100 1h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $81 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $104 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $50 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $53 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $103 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 19? BUY Yes 85¢ $62 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $61 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $48 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $150 5h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $198 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $52 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $100 5h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $151 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $93 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $100 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 6h
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C SELL Yes 99¢ $204 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $104 6h
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $103 6h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $103 6h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $103 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 97¢ $103 6h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $100 6h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 7h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $103 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $300 9h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $293 9h
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 99¢ $257 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,597.18 · official $5,597.87 (match) · 2011 history records