Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:11:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2dca…da77 sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$66 (-4%) realized −$109 · open +$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$222now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 83d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$143
other 2% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -4.6% -13.7% 40% 40% -3.4%
≤30d 10 -4.6% -13.7% 40% 40% -3.4%
≤90d 15 -7.3% -16.1% 47% 47% -19.0%
all 15 -7.3% -16.1% 47% 47% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 47% -19.0%
10% -24.2% 47% -26.7%
15% -31.5% 27% -33.8%
20% -38.2% 13% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$60 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$222
Realized−$109
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage83d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 Over 84¢ 100¢ $169 $200 +$31 (+18%)
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Yes 45¢ 100¢ $10 $22 +$12 (+122%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $252 −$74 -29%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals Jun 19 $18 +$36 +196%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $10 −$5 -44%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $170 +$52 +31%
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) Jun 19 $129 +$42 +32%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $133 −$100 -75%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $165 +$162 +99%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $37 −$36 -98%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 19 $19 −$6 -30%
76ers vs. Hornets Mar 28 $93 −$93 -100%
Pistons vs. Timberwolves Mar 28 $62 +$31 +49%
Credit One Charleston Open, Qualification: Kristina Mladenovic vs Mary Mar 28 $44 +$18 +41%
US Men's Clay Court Championships, Qualification: Alex Bolt vs Alex Ry Mar 28 $202 −$157 -78%
Credit One Charleston Open, Qualification: Darja Vidmanova vs Katarina Mar 28 $8 +$2 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $170 1h
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $10 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 SELL Over 38¢ $30 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 SELL Over 60¢ $148 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $252 2h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $54 3h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $18 3h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 10¢ $6 4h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 17¢ $10 4h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $223 4h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $170 5h
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) SELL Tiafoe 89¢ $170 5h
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) SELL Tiafoe 84¢ $0 5h
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) BUY Tiafoe 66¢ $129 6h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 24¢ $10 7h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 60¢ $101 7h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniel Altmaier 41¢ $20 7h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniel Altmaier 74¢ $37 7h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniel Altmaier 31¢ $32 8h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 100¢ $0 9h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 100¢ $214 9h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 70¢ $151 9h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 62¢ $113 9h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 7¢ $13 10h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $13 23h
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? SELL Yes 27¢ $14 23h
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? BUY Yes 37¢ $19 24h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $23 24h
76ers vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 81¢ $93 83d
Pistons vs. Timberwolves SELL Pistons 100¢ $93 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $222.40 · official $201.23 · 37 history records