Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:59:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2dc6…dd9d crypto 578 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$219 (-5%) realized −$219 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate60%345W / 233L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$27
14 days−$117
30 days−$133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$184
other 17% −$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -17.9% -25.8% 53% 53% -20.5%
≤30d 291 -9.4% -18.0% 57% 57% -16.5%
≤90d 578 -7.3% -16.2% 60% 59% -15.4%
all 578 -7.3% -16.2% 60% 59% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 59% -15.4%
10% -24.2% 58% -23.5%
15% -31.5% 49% -30.8%
20% -38.2% 28% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$219
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses345 / 233
Open positions0
Markets (closed)578 / 578
History coverage82d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 578 Trades
no open positions (233 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 17 $22 +$8 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$3 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +70%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$3 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$13 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$8 +127%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +61%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +59%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +83%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$3 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7PM ET Jun 10 $8 +$2 +32%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +54%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 3AM ET Jun 10 $7 +$2 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$4 +36%
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 6PM ET Jun 09 $22 −$22 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +60%
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 3AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$4 +42%
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 2AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$4 +44%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 2AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $22 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 8h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $13 12h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 12h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $6 12h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $7 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 34h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 36h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 36h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 36h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $10 41h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 41h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 41h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 41h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $7 2d
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $38 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $19 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1243 history records