Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:57:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2dc5…77d3 crypto 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%52W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$2
other 18% $0
weather 10% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 13 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 54 -1.7% -11.1% 96% 0% -9.6%
all 54 -1.7% -11.1% 96% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses52 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage85d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on June 12? Jun 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? Jun 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 31? Jun 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 22? May 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 19? May 19 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 18 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15? May 15 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14? May 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 12? May 12 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 10? May 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9? May 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 7? May 07 $17 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will TurboTax: File Your Tax Return be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Apr 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on April 27? Apr 27 $29 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Apr 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 19? Apr 20 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 18? Apr 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 18 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 13? Apr 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C or higher on April 12 Apr 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C or below on April 11? Apr 11 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 9? Apr 09 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C or below on April 8? Apr 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 5? Apr 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Apr 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 19°C or below on April 4? Apr 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 2? Apr 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 1? Apr 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $68 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $67 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 29? Mar 30 $52 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 29? Mar 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 28? Mar 28 $71 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $41 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 56m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $21 20h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $6 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $12 4d
Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $20 7d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or higher on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $25 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $23 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $26 14d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $16 15d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 18d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 21d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $22 24d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $22 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $24 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 32d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $19 34d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 35d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 10? BUY No 100¢ $18 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $24 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 7? SELL No 0¢ $7 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 7? BUY No 0¢ $8 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 7? SELL No 0¢ $1 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 7? SELL No 0¢ $0 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 7? SELL No 0¢ $0 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 7? SELL No 0¢ $4 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 7? SELL No 0¢ $1 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 7? SELL No 0¢ $0 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.93 · official $17.93 (match) · 126 history records