Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:42:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2D
0x2dc1…7bb8
weather · 67 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$300 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$247 · open −$41
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$247
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses19 / 34
Open positions14
Markets (closed)53 / 67
History coverage5d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day87.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 14 History 53 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$247
14 days−$247
30 days−$247
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? No 2¢ 1¢ $8 $3 −$6 (-69%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? No 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-62%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-82%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-85%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 13? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-94%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-84%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 13? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June 13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-70%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-85%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? No 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 13? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $18 −$12 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 −$7 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$4 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 12 Jun 12 $13 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 −$7 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $9 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 11? Jun 11 $73 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $234 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $17 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$1 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $12 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6AM ET Jun 10 $19 −$4 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 10 $422 −$59 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $27 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $30 −$4 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $12 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $516 −$66 -13%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $47 −$2 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 08 $17 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 08 $16 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 08 $342 −$50 -14%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 08 $6 −$1 -15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 08 $35 −$2 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 08 $6 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 08 $299 −$8 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 08 $17 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 08 $42 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 08 $33 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 08 $292 −$14 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 08 $53 −$9 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11AM ET Jun 08 $21 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 08 $18 +$3 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$2 +206%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 08 $13 +$1 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$3 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 82% −$220
weather 17% −$69
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 1¢ $1 22m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 43m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 46m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 47m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 47m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 48m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 50m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 50m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 50m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 51m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 56m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 58m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 2¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 1¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 2¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 2¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 2¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -5.9% -14.9% 36% 13% -17.6%
≤30d 53 -5.9% -14.9% 36% 13% -17.6%
≤90d 53 -5.9% -14.9% 36% 13% -17.6%
all 53 -5.9% -14.9% 36% 13% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover87.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 13% -17.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 4% -25.5%
15% -30.5% 4% -32.7%
20% -37.3% 4% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.03 · official $5.03 (match) · 461 history records