Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:44:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2D 0x2dc0…3df6 economics 10 markets active 16h ago coverage 35d
RISKYcopy with care economics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$484 (+3%) realized +$446 · open +$38
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate100%5W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,767per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$2,814now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 35d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 89% +$314
other 11% +$157
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +5.0% -5.0% 100% 20% -6.9%
≤30d 5 +5.0% -5.0% 100% 20% -6.9%
≤90d 5 +5.0% -5.0% 100% 20% -6.9%
all 5 +5.0% -5.0% 100% 20% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.0% 20% -6.9%
10% ← realistic here -14.1% 0% -15.8%
15% -22.4% 0% -23.9%
20% -30.0% 0% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
9.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$87 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$2,814
Realized+$446
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses5 / 0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)5 / 10
History coverage35d
Avg bet$1,767
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for th Jun 16 $1,064 +$16 +2%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 16 $3,749 +$77 +2%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 Jun 16 $6,488 +$74 +1%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $895 +$140 +16%
ECB rate hike in 2026? Jun 11 $2,702 +$125 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 m BUY No 95¢ $201 15h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 m BUY No 95¢ $168 15h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 m BUY No 95¢ $19 15h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 m BUY No 95¢ $19 15h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $14 5d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $6 5d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $39 5d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $29 5d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $29 5d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $3 5d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $79 5d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $60 5d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $2,360 5d
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for th BUY Yes 98¢ $394 5d
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for th BUY Yes 98¢ $329 5d
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for th BUY Yes 98¢ $147 5d
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for th BUY Yes 99¢ $66 5d
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for th BUY Yes 98¢ $123 5d
ECB rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,068 6d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY No 99¢ $121 7d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY No 99¢ $99 7d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY No 99¢ $36 7d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY No 99¢ $99 7d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $28 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $49 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $49 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $49 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $49 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $50 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $50 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,814.00 · official $2,814.00 (match) · 98 history records