Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:53:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2D
0x2dc0…e57d
other · 1507 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$3,595 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4,934 · open −$130
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$134
Realized−$4,934
Unrealized−$130
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses392 / 1230
Est. fees paid−$558
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1622 / 1507
History coverage102d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day33.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%
Chart Positions 9 History 1622 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$964
7 days−$1,026
14 days−$1,026
30 days−$1,026
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+5%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 29¢ 22¢ $40 $31 −$9 (-22%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-20%)
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Tampa Bay Rays 7¢ 1¢ $54 $8 −$46 (-85%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Como 1907 end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $73 $0 −$73 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Club Tijuana win on 2026-03-08? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-04-17? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-02? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will CD Palestino win on 2026-04-23? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Will Valencia CF vs. Girona FC end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-04-22? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals Baltimore Orioles 22¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$10 +314%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Atlas FC win on 2026-02-27? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -12%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-02-25? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Nuggets vs. Jazz Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-21? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-03-02? Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-02-21? Jun 14 $5 −$8 -149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FK Zenit vs. FK Baltika Kaliningrad end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will San Diego FC vs. St. Louis City SC end in a draw? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $13 $0 -4%
76ers vs. Pelicans Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 50+ times during the 2026 State Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Kasımpaşa SK win on 2026-02-23? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-02-22? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will CA Banfield vs. CA Aldosivi end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Rhode Island Rams vs. St. Bonaventure Bonnies Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-28? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 52% −$2,902
sports 36% +$1,171
crypto 10% −$1,117
world 1% −$228
culture 1% −$147
politics 0% −$129
finance 0% −$20
economics 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $41 20m
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 25m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 2¢ $10 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $11 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 9¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $6 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 31¢ $35 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 13¢ $5 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Houston Astros 87¢ $2 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 19¢ $20 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Houston Astros 74¢ $97 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 6¢ $4 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 7¢ $3 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 20¢ $10 1h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 2h
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 2h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 8¢ $10 2h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 2h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 15¢ $39 2h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 37¢ $178 2h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 208 -55.7% -59.9% 12% 12% -38.1%
≤30d 208 -55.7% -59.9% 12% 12% -38.1%
≤90d 1136 -24.2% -31.4% 24% 23% -15.0%
all 1622 -23.1% -30.4% 24% 23% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover33.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.4% 23% -17.1%
10% ← realistic here -37.1% 23% -25.0%
15% -43.1% 22% -32.3%
20% -48.7% 20% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.52 · official $133.52 (match) · 3500 history records