Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:43:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
2D 0x2dbe…2f71 sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$82 (-28%) realized −$79 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +87% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +69% what you keep after slip
Net edge+69%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%7W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$50
14 days+$50
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$119
sports 12% +$50
world 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+69.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +175.8% +149.5% 40% 40% +120.2%
≤30d 10 +175.8% +149.5% 40% 40% +120.2%
≤90d 10 +175.8% +149.5% 40% 40% +120.2%
all 17 +87.2% +69.3% 41% 35% -31.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +69.3% 35% -31.1%
10% +53.1% 29% -37.7%
15% +38.3% 29% -43.7%
20% +24.8% 29% -49.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +143% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +87% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late +206% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$15 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$79
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses7 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage170d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 54¢ 24¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$16 +320%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$16 +303%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$27 +1308%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +249%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -61%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -57%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Dec 30 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Dec 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Dec 29 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Dec 29 $64 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Dec 29 $7 +$7 +105%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on December 28 Dec 29 $50 +$6 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 28? Dec 28 $67 −$67 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $22 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $21 4h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 7h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 17h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 17h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 17h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 24h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 25h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 31h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 43h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 43h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 43h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 43h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 43h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 46h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 46h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 167d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $36 169d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 169d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $30 169d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $66 169d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 169d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $14 169d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 169d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 169d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 28? BUY Yes 42¢ $19 169d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.27 · official $2.27 (match) · 36 history records