Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:53:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

2D 0x2dbc…ac0d other 17 markets active 6d ago coverage 637d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$42,813 (+134%) realized +$42,813 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip

Net edge+2%after slip

Net WR59%break-even

Win rate76%13W / 4L

Whale WR60%big bets

Drawdown14%max

Avg bet$1,880per market

Trades / day0.5pace

Kalshi-fit24%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days+$0

14 days+$0

30 days+$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +59%

net ROI/market (all)+5.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+6.4%	-3.7%	100%	0%	-3.7%
≤30d	1	+6.4%	-3.7%	100%	0%	-3.7%
≤90d	4	+22.6%	+10.9%	100%	75%	+15.9%
all	17	+17.1%	+5.9%	76%	59%	+111.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.5 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+5.9%	59%	+111.7%
10%	-4.2%	18%	+91.4%
15%	-13.5%	18%	+72.9%
20%	-22.0%	12%	+56.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 97% · top 2 99% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +28% too few recent

Fragile wins

23% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +17% · $-wt +134% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 60% (≥$806) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +27% → late +8% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

16.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$3,870 vs −$1,874 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×6.71 per $1 lost it wins $6.71

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

637d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$42,813

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)76%

Wins / losses13 / 4

Whale WR (big bets)60%

Open positions0

Markets (closed)17 / 17

History coverage637d

Avg bet$1,880

Trades / day0.5

Drawdown14%

Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 17 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$5	$0	+6%
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	May 17	$30	+$15	+52%
Will Czechia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	May 15	$26	+$4	+14%
Will Serbia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	May 13	$22	+$4	+18%
Will Felicia win Melodifestivalen 2026?	Mar 11	$19	+$3	+16%
Will Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen win UMK 2026?	Mar 07	$17	+$2	+11%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?	Feb 25	$12	+$5	+43%
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?	Oct 30	$11	+$1	+11%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?	May 18	$6,874	−$6,874	-100%
Will France win Eurovision 2025?	May 18	$18	−$18	-100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025?	May 18	$272	−$272	-100%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?	May 18	$11,627	+$48,961	+421%
Will Malta qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?	May 17	$6,136	+$1,083	+18%
Will Norway qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?	May 14	$526	+$87	+17%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025?	May 09	$806	−$335	-42%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Apr 05	$5,452	+$141	+3%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Nov 02	$100	+$2	+2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	94¢	$5	6d
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	BUY Yes	66¢	$30	33d
Will Czechia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	BUY Yes	87¢	$26	34d
Will Serbia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	BUY Yes	84¢	$22	36d
Will Felicia win Melodifestivalen 2026?	BUY Yes	86¢	$19	103d
Will Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen win UMK 2026?	BUY Yes	90¢	$17	113d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?	BUY Yes	70¢	$12	193d
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?	BUY No	90¢	$11	231d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?	BUY Yes	22¢	$1,803	396d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?	BUY Yes	22¢	$1	396d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?	BUY Yes	22¢	$3	396d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?	BUY Yes	22¢	$10	396d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?	BUY Yes	22¢	$24	396d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?	BUY Yes	22¢	$8	396d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?	BUY Yes	22¢	$4	396d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?	BUY Yes	22¢	$3	396d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?	BUY Yes	22¢	$0	396d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?	BUY Yes	22¢	$9	396d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?	BUY Yes	22¢	$12	396d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?	BUY Yes	22¢	$11	396d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?	BUY Yes	22¢	$7	396d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?	BUY Yes	22¢	$7	396d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?	BUY Yes	22¢	$14	396d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?	BUY Yes	22¢	$7	396d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?	BUY Yes	22¢	$10	396d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?	BUY Yes	22¢	$11	396d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?	BUY Yes	22¢	$12	396d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?	BUY Yes	22¢	$11	396d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?	BUY Yes	22¢	$0	396d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?	BUY Yes	22¢	$2,150	396d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 346 history records