Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:43:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2D 0x2dbc…9e9b crypto 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$12 (+10%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate68%17W / 8L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$16
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 85% +$12
crypto 15% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +13.1% +2.4% 50% 40% +6.9%
≤30d 25 +5.0% -5.0% 68% 16% +1.2%
≤90d 25 +5.0% -5.0% 68% 16% +1.2%
all 25 +5.0% -5.0% 68% 16% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 16% +1.2%
10% -14.1% 16% -8.5%
15% -22.4% 12% -17.3%
20% -30.0% 12% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.88 per $1 lost it wins $2.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses17 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage11d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Yes 39¢ 35¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $17 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $13 +$4 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $12 +$7 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 5? Jun 05 $5 −$3 -65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 70¢ $11 18m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 39¢ $1 58m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 68¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 39¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? SELL Yes 80¢ $3 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? SELL Yes 70¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $13 23h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 91¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $9 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 43h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 52¢ $2 44h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 44h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.77 · official $1.77 (match) · 128 history records