Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:42:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2dbb…f7ff other 281 markets active 2h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,801 (-3%) realized −$1,787 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate55%158W / 131L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day41.8pace
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$1,742now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$211
7 days+$935
14 days+$935
30 days+$193
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$606
weather 16% −$1,228
tech 0% +$65
politics 0% −$7
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -40.2% -45.9% 43% 7% +0.2%
≤30d 135 -12.1% -20.5% 64% 15% -8.5%
≤90d 289 -13.5% -21.7% 55% 17% -12.4%
all 289 -13.5% -21.7% 55% 17% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.7% 17% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -29.2% 7% -20.7%
15% -36.1% 6% -28.4%
20% -42.3% 5% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$45 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$1,742
Realized−$1,787
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses158 / 131
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)289 / 281
History coverage58d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day41.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 289 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,745 $1,741 −$4 (-0%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-96%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? No 21¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Jun 29 $1,525 +$220 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Jun 27 $163 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $1,380 +$120 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $37 −$36 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $1,394 +$120 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $1,206 +$85 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $47 +$3 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $921 +$293 +32%
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $7 $0 -3%
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $719 +$59 +8%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $791 +$70 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $80 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $96 +$3 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $149 $0 -0%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $19 −$6 -31%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $169 +$12 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $89 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $1,556 +$116 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $78 +$6 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $18 −$17 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $203 +$14 +7%
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $22 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $216 −$165 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $29 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $267 +$31 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $209 +$11 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $11 −$7 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $47 −$46 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$1 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $221 −$180 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $28 +$2 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $123 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $75 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,539 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,746 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 21¢ $3 3h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $104 42h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $12 43h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $5 43h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $31 43h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $24 44h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $13 44h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $5 44h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $24 44h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $24 44h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $28 45h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $4 45h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $151 45h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $13 45h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $4 45h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $42 45h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $11 45h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $158 45h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $162 45h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $132 45h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $20 45h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $70 46h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $38 46h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $43 47h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $52 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,741.87 · official $1,741.87 (match) · 2492 history records