Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:21:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
2D 0x2dbb…635e sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$21 (+13%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$11
sports 36% +$27
crypto 12% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +3.9% -6.0% 44% 44% +2.7%
≤30d 9 +3.9% -6.0% 44% 44% +2.7%
≤90d 9 +3.9% -6.0% 44% 44% +2.7%
all 9 +3.9% -6.0% 44% 44% +2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 44% +2.7%
10% -15.0% 44% -7.2%
15% -23.2% 33% -16.1%
20% -30.7% 22% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$11 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage3d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $28 +$13 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 +$2 +26%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -81%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$20 +200%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 −$5 -26%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$19 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $23 +$39 +170%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $22 −$21 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $28 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $28 21h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 38¢ $10 21h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $8 22h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 43h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 44h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 92¢ $30 46h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $15 46h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $20 46h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 99¢ $61 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $23 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 42¢ $22 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.25 · official $27.25 (match) · 16 history records