Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:30:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2D 0x2dba…1d6c sports 159 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,050 (+1%) realized +$2,990 · open +$60
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate63%99W / 58L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,426per market
Trades / day31.2pace
Fees−$3,426est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$2,180now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 23d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$719
other 23% +$9,657
world 0% +$466
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +1.3% -8.3% 57% 54% -9.6%
≤30d 157 +5.9% -4.2% 63% 60% -5.9%
≤90d 157 +5.9% -4.2% 63% 60% -5.9%
all 157 +5.9% -4.2% 63% 60% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.2% 60% -5.9%
10% -13.3% 55% -14.9%
15% ← realistic here -21.7% 42% -23.1%
20% -29.4% 28% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$3,037) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,127 vs −$1,763 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$2,180
Realized+$2,990
Unrealized+$60
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses99 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$3,426
Open positions1
Markets (closed)157 / 159
History coverage23d
Avg bet$2,426
Trades / day31.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Canada 53¢ 55¢ $2,120 $2,180 +$60 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,419 +$2,077 +86%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $2,646 −$2,614 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $1,749 +$2,209 +126%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $2,299 −$575 -25%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $2,016 +$1,957 +97%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $1,801 −$1,775 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2,522 +$2,174 +86%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $452 −$440 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,986 +$2,014 +67%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $386 +$633 +164%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $641 +$751 +117%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $4,178 −$3,803 -91%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,950 +$1,499 +51%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,490 +$2,177 +87%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,263 +$1,540 +68%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3,941 +$2,059 +52%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $3,466 +$3,861 +111%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $3,088 −$3,088 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $2,069 +$1,015 +49%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $1,133 +$956 +84%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $2,600 −$2,570 -99%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $2,303 +$1,429 +62%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $2,363 −$2,340 -99%
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro Jun 16 $2,256 −$2,221 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8,248 −$5,055 -61%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,037 −$2,068 -68%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $11,073 +$363 +3%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $3,149 +$3,705 +118%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2,091 +$1,060 +51%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $3,150 −$3,107 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $2,414 −$2,374 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1,881 −$1,860 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,870 +$2,130 +114%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4,108 +$1,474 +36%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2,186 −$2,141 -98%
Joventut vs. Valencia Jun 14 $1,401 +$795 +57%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $3,638 −$3,611 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $4,066 −$4,046 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston Jun 14 $1,737 −$1,719 -99%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 14 $2,222 +$1,288 +58%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 14 $596 −$10 -2%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $2,207 −$2,184 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3,680 +$1,320 +36%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $968 −$954 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,742 +$2,816 +103%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2,527 −$2,507 -99%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $396 −$386 -98%
La Laguna Tenerife vs. Barcelona Jun 13 $1,387 +$1,137 +82%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $8,252 +$792 +10%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $2,865 −$1,134 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 53¢ $2,150 30m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $4,495 35m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $2,419 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $2,646 2h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina SELL Alexandra Eala 99¢ $3,959 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 50¢ $1,724 4h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Alexandra Eala 43¢ $1,749 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $2,299 5h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 50¢ $2,014 10h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 45¢ $2 10h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally BUY Caty McNally 50¢ $1,801 10h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 11¢ $452 18h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 53¢ $2,522 23h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 91¢ $0 23h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 90¢ $249 23h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 90¢ $266 23h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 88¢ $503 23h
England leading at halftime? SELL Yes 93¢ $1,392 24h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $641 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $2,986 25h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 33¢ $386 26h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal $81 26h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal $277 26h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal $17 26h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $4,178 30h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $2,167 39h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $2,490 40h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 59¢ $683 41h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 59¢ $26 41h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 59¢ $1,554 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,180.00 · official $2,180.00 (match) · 776 history records