Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:39:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2D 0x2db8…e042 sports 1546 markets active 1h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 225d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,517 (-1%) realized −$2,514 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate70%1077W / 465L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$420est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days−$445
14 days−$709
30 days−$2,066
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$2,074
other 10% +$291
politics 0% +$17
world 0% −$70
crypto 0% −$8
culture 0% −$50
economics 0% −$29
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +4.7% -5.3% 74% 69% -16.2%
≤30d 177 -6.0% -15.0% 69% 54% -15.5%
≤90d 598 +1.7% -8.0% 73% 59% -10.7%
all 1542 -2.1% -11.4% 70% 57% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 57% -10.5%
10% -19.9% 35% -19.1%
15% -27.7% 23% -26.9%
20% -34.8% 14% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$54 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$197
Realized−$2,514
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses1077 / 465
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$420
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1542 / 1546
History coverage225d ⚠
Avg bet$116
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1542 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Ben Shelton 79¢ 80¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Frances Tiafoe 69¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov Alex de Minaur 78¢ 76¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Set Handicap: Gea (-1.5) vs Harris (+1.5) Harris 71¢ 68¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$24 +24%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $100 +$55 +55%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $231 −$230 -100%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $50 +$9 +19%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 +$46 +46%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $51 +$44 +86%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $51 +$26 +52%
Set Handicap: Wong (-1.5) vs Harris (+1.5) Jun 15 $50 +$23 +46%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $51 +$42 +83%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Moez Echargui Jun 15 $100 +$19 +18%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 15 $100 +$10 +10%
Set Handicap: Valentova (-1.5) vs Bouzkova (+1.5) Jun 15 $50 +$15 +29%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $51 +$36 +70%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $51 +$25 +50%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $101 +$22 +22%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$11 +11%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $50 −$50 -99%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $51 +$40 +79%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $101 +$53 +52%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef Jun 14 $51 +$34 +67%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $61 −$60 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $19 +$3 +16%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 13 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $504 −$418 -83%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $101 +$23 +23%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Mikhail Kukushkin Jun 13 $100 +$13 +13%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $101 +$26 +26%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $101 +$33 +32%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $101 +$36 +36%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $302 −$300 -100%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $101 +$60 +60%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $100 +$13 +13%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $402 +$23 +6%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 12 $101 +$36 +36%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 +$16 +16%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $101 +$50 +50%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 11 $51 −$4 -8%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 11 $646 +$26 +4%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 10 $100 +$11 +11%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $100 +$19 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Gea (-1.5) vs Harris (+1.5) BUY Harris 71¢ $50 1h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Alex de Minaur 78¢ $50 1h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Frances Tiafoe 69¢ $50 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Ben Shelton 79¢ $50 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $100 10h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 10h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 86¢ $231 12h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 47¢ $51 14h
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa BUY Suzan Lamens 44¢ $51 16h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Karolina Pliskova 84¢ $50 16h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 56¢ $51 25h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $51 33h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $51 35h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 68¢ $101 35h
Set Handicap: Wong (-1.5) vs Harris (+1.5) BUY Harris 68¢ $50 38h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Talia Gibson 54¢ $51 38h
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Moez Echargui BUY Jaime Faria 84¢ $100 41h
Set Handicap: Valentova (-1.5) vs Bouzkova (+1.5) BUY Bouzkova 77¢ $50 2d
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Marie Bouzkova 58¢ $51 2d
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen BUY Tatjana Maria 66¢ $51 2d
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien BUY Learner Tien 82¢ $101 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 77¢ $101 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 70¢ $50 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 2d
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 57¢ $51 2d
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt BUY Mattia Bellucci 55¢ $51 2d
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut BUY Raphael Collignon 65¢ $101 2d
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef BUY Ashlyn Krueger 59¢ $51 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $61 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 86¢ $19 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.22 · official $197.22 (match) · 3500 history records