Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:14:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2D 0x2db5…e4b7 other 114 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$38 (-0%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%12W / 99L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$231now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$4
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$12
politics 22% −$8
sports 4% −$17
economics 4% −$1
world 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +26.2% +14.2% 25% 25% -8.4%
≤30d 18 +5.8% -4.3% 17% 6% -9.4%
≤90d 109 +1.0% -8.6% 11% 7% -9.7%
all 111 +1.0% -8.6% 11% 7% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 7% -9.7%
10% -17.4% 6% -18.3%
15% -25.4% 6% -26.2%
20% -32.7% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$231
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses12 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)111 / 114
History coverage93d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $137 $137 +$0 (+0%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $65 $65 −$0 (-0%)
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $28 $0 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 17 $46 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $288 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $39 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $39 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $253 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $27 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $37 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $45 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $279 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $53 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 02 $85 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 31 $43 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $46 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $911 −$1 -0%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 24 $42 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $28 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $216 $0 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $209 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $682 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $217 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $860 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $226 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 10 $212 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $423 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $642 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $659 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $226 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $216 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $219 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 03 $439 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $220 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $221 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? May 01 $29 $0 +0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $221 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $227 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 28 $230 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $215 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $224 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $1,048 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $218 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $439 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $236 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $452 −$3 -1%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $222 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April? Apr 15 $217 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $426 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $226 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $426 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $65 8h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 20h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 28h
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $46 45h
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $46 2d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 2d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 2d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $137 3d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $39 7d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 7d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 8d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 8d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 9d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 9d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $27 13d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $27 13d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $37 15d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 15d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $45 15d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $45 15d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $37 16d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $37 16d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $43 18d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $43 18d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $46 19d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 19d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $42 20d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $230.75 · official $230.75 (match) · 317 history records