Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:37:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2db5…cc23 crypto 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$44,324 (+73%) realized +$48,377 · open −$4,053
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$8,629per market
Trades / day78.0pace
Fees−$290est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$5,070now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$33,099
sports 35% +$14,487
crypto 16% −$4,053
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +37.0% +24.0% 67% 67% +75.2%
≤30d 3 +37.0% +24.0% 67% 67% +75.2%
≤90d 3 +37.0% +24.0% 67% 67% +75.2%
all 3 +37.0% +24.0% 67% 67% +75.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover78.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +24.0% 67% +75.2%
10% +12.1% 67% +58.5%
15% ← realistic here +1.3% 67% +43.2%
20% -8.6% 67% +29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +94% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +94% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
8.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25,678 vs −$3,769 · ×6.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×13.62 per $1 lost it wins $13.62
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$5,070
Realized+$48,377
Unrealized−$4,053
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$290
Open positions4
Markets (closed)3 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8,629
Trades / day78.0
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Yes 32¢ 19¢ $5,123 $3,081 −$2,042 (-40%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 22-28? Yes 18¢ 8¢ $2,500 $1,165 −$1,335 (-53%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $700 $468 −$232 (-33%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 22-28? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $800 $356 −$444 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $25,808 +$36,869 +143%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 26 $21,217 +$14,487 +68%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $3,769 −$3,769 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 100¢ $9,955 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 100¢ $9,955 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 100¢ $19,910 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 100¢ $13,273 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 98¢ $1,953 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 96¢ $1,918 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 95¢ $1,897 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 95¢ $1,897 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 96¢ $1,918 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY Yes 33¢ $314 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY Yes 33¢ $105 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY Yes 33¢ $105 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY Yes 33¢ $105 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY Yes 33¢ $209 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY Yes 33¢ $314 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY Yes 32¢ $419 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY Yes 32¢ $210 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY Yes 32¢ $314 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY Yes 32¢ $209 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $106 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY Yes 32¢ $209 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $106 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 22-28? BUY Yes 19¢ $211 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 22-28? BUY Yes 19¢ $211 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 22-28? BUY Yes 18¢ $211 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 22-28? BUY Yes 18¢ $211 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 22-28? BUY Yes 18¢ $211 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 22-28? BUY Yes 18¢ $211 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 22-28? BUY Yes 18¢ $317 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 22-28? BUY Yes 5¢ $320 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,069.99 · official $5,089.05 (match) · 79 history records