Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:04:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
2D 0x2db3…667a crypto 1526 markets active 2h ago coverage 185d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,517 (-2%) realized −$5,517 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate59%896W / 630L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$1,011est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$33
14 days−$566
30 days−$247
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% −$2,607
sports 42% −$1,544
other 14% −$3,498
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +11.4% +0.8% 80% 80% +4.3%
≤30d 513 -4.6% -13.7% 60% 49% -9.6%
≤90d 1171 -6.3% -15.2% 61% 49% -11.2%
all 1526 -5.9% -14.9% 59% 49% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 49% -12.6%
10% -23.0% 39% -20.9%
15% -30.4% 33% -28.6%
20% -37.3% 24% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$115 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,517
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses896 / 630
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$1,011
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1526 / 1526
History coverage185d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1526 Trades
no open positions (351 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 22 $91 +$12 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 22 $47 +$44 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $39 +$16 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $38 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $33 +$4 +12%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $64 −$64 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $61 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$7 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $39 +$19 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $30 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $23 +$7 +32%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $11 +$11 +99%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $59 −$58 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$11 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$9 +86%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$19 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$20 +39%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $101 −$56 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $495 −$40 -8%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $285 −$35 -12%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $114 +$173 +152%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $49 +$65 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$24 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $65 −$65 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $36 +$28 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$16 +103%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $117 −$115 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $72 −$70 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $113 +$58 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $115 −$115 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $36 +$69 +190%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $880 −$869 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $91 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $47 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $3 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 67¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $53 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $39 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $38 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $33 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $64 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $9 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $9 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $66 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $61 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $18 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $58 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $39 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $30 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $30 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $23 7d
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur SELL Kamil Majchrzak 99¢ $22 7d
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Kamil Majchrzak 49¢ $11 7d
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 57¢ $59 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $7 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $21 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3164 history records