Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:58:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2db3…e5c6 world 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 269d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate30%13W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$1
politics 21% $0
other 17% $0
crypto 14% −$2
sports 13% −$5
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +2.3% -7.5% 62% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 37% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 37% 0% -9.4%
all 43 -0.2% -9.7% 30% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

269d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses13 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage269d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $33 +$1 +3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $48 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $12 +$1 +8%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $37 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $28 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $81 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $4 $0 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $43 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $16 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $18 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 -18%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $40 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $50 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $47 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $48 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $25 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $5 $0 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 04 $48 $0 -0%
Vince Williams Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Mar 09 $145 −$5 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 9? Mar 09 $146 −$2 -1%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? Mar 07 $146 $0 +0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Mar 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 05 $29 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 05 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $24 $0 -1%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 29 $26 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 29 $19 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 28 $21 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 28 $21 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 28 $21 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 27 $23 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 27 $28 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in September? Sep 23 $29 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in September? Sep 23 $29 $0 +1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Sep 22 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $44 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $44 6h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $10 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $23 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $33 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $49 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $48 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $11 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $8 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $2 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 18¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $23 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $37 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $29 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $16 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $13 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 17¢ $12 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 17¢ $14 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 17¢ $26 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 148 history records