Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:59:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
2D 0x2dae…7d76 crypto 277 markets active 1h ago coverage 255d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$85 (+1%) realized +$90 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate56%153W / 122L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$53
14 days+$18
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$89
world 1% −$1
finance 1% $0
economics 0% $0
sports 0% −$2
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +150.2% +126.3% 50% 50% +73.5%
≤30d 34 +59.8% +44.6% 47% 29% +4.4%
≤90d 118 +10.4% -0.1% 56% 12% -10.2%
all 275 +6.2% -3.9% 56% 13% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 13% -8.3%
10% -13.1% 12% -17.1%
15% -21.5% 11% -25.1%
20% -29.2% 10% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

255d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$90
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses153 / 122
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)275 / 277
History coverage255d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 275 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 25? Jun 25 $5 +$10 +192%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $5 +$11 +206%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $5 +$4 +74%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 22? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 21? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $5 +$24 +447%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 19? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? Jun 18 $2 +$29 +1366%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $11 −$5 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $11 +$34 +327%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 6? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 3? Jun 03 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 3? Jun 03 $11 +$3 +27%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 2? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $2 +$20 +1028%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 29? May 29 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28? May 28 $11 +$1 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? May 27 $5 +$2 +39%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 25 $2 −$1 -41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? May 24 $10 $0 +0%
World Championships: Denmark vs. Slovenia May 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 23? May 23 $32 −$26 -82%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 22? May 22 $56 −$19 -33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 21? May 21 $58 −$3 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 18? May 18 $59 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 17? May 17 $57 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 16? May 16 $58 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 15? May 15 $56 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? May 14 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 14? May 14 $55 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? May 14 $55 $0 -0%
Valorant: Gentle Mates GC vs Twisted Minds Orchid (BO3) - VCT Game Cha May 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13? May 13 $57 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $45 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 25? SELL No 91¢ $15 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 25? BUY No 29¢ $5 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 12h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $16 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY No 31¢ $5 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? SELL No 74¢ $9 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY No 40¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 22? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY No 48¢ $5 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 21? BUY No 17¢ $5 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 19? BUY No 7¢ $5 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 35¢ $5 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY No 6¢ $2 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 4¢ $5 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY No 50¢ $5 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $24 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.14 · official $45.14 (match) · 519 history records