Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:51:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2dac…475d other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$65 (-20%) realized −$67 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$58
sports 15% +$17
crypto 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-40.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -34.4% -40.6% 43% 43% -23.5%
≤30d 14 -34.4% -40.6% 43% 43% -23.5%
≤90d 14 -34.4% -40.6% 43% 43% -23.5%
all 14 -34.4% -40.6% 43% 43% -23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.6% 43% -23.5%
10% -46.3% 36% -30.8%
15% -51.5% 21% -37.5%
20% -56.3% 14% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$13 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 17
History coverage3d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 63¢ 66¢ $35 $37 +$2 (+6%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $16 −$10 -64%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Curaçao? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win o Jun 25 $42 +$17 +42%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $22 +$4 +19%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $17 +$4 +26%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $22 +$6 +27%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $23 +$13 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$9 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 13h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 63¢ $35 14h
France to score first vs. Norway? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY 44¢ $7 16h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $16 16h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $41 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 18h
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Curaçao? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win o BUY 70¢ $42 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $22 36h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 37h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 79¢ $17 38h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 40h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 44h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 78¢ $22 44h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 44h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 47h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $23 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.20 · official $73.47 · 30 history records