Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:40:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2D 0x2dab…55da crypto 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$673 (+3%) realized +$798 · open −$125
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate41%28W / 40L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$353per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$393est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$171now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$254
7 days+$1,706
14 days−$2,849
30 days+$372
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$680
crypto 19% −$1,974
other 16% +$1,455
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +69.0% +52.9% 52% 43% +5.9%
≤30d 51 +31.8% +19.3% 47% 37% -8.1%
≤90d 68 +12.3% +1.6% 41% 32% -8.5%
all 68 +12.3% +1.6% 41% 32% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.6% 32% -8.5%
10% -8.1% 26% -17.2%
15% -17.0% 19% -25.2%
20% -25.1% 16% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late +43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$305 vs −$206 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$171
Realized+$798
Unrealized−$125
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses28 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$393
Open positions3
Markets (closed)68 / 71
History coverage36d
Avg bet$353
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? No 4¢ 2¢ $242 $130 −$111 (-46%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? No 6¢ 4¢ $54 $40 −$14 (-25%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $407 +$3 +1%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $305 −$257 -84%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 18 $8 +$87 +1110%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Jun 18 $40 +$124 +307%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 18 $40 +$238 +594%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $385 +$830 +216%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $22 +$3 +14%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1,672 +$80 +5%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $295 +$111 +38%
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 16 $254 −$254 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 23? Jun 16 $113 −$39 -35%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 8? Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $407 −$407 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 24? Jun 16 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 16 $168 −$168 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 16? Jun 16 $511 −$426 -83%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? Jun 16 $124 −$122 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 16 $332 −$332 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $2,426 +$256 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $59 +$6 +11%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,277 +$2,118 +93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$10 +190%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $342 −$10 -3%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $291 −$23 -8%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $544 +$61 +11%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $4,352 −$2,498 -57%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $6 −$6 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $2,894 −$2,076 -72%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,949 +$4,067 +209%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 04 $41 +$14 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 04 $95 −$56 -60%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $84 +$8 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $226 −$138 -61%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $230 −$3 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $200 −$85 -42%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $223 −$115 -52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $962 −$720 -75%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? Jun 02 $9 −$8 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 01 $6 +$2 +32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? May 31 $26 −$2 -9%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $498 +$124 +25%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $201 +$10 +5%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $103 −$101 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? May 28 $8 +$20 +263%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $306 +$182 +60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 23 $2 $0 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? May 23 $17 +$51 +303%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $410 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $407 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 7¢ $49 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY No 6¢ $58 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY No 2¢ $2 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $305 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY No 4¢ $240 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? SELL No 36¢ $0 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? SELL No 36¢ $91 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? SELL No 36¢ $4 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? SELL No 37¢ $18 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? SELL No 37¢ $111 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? SELL No 37¢ $35 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? SELL No 35¢ $278 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $1,215 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 31¢ $385 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? SELL No 2¢ $24 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL No 59¢ $190 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL No 59¢ $1 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL No 59¢ $143 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL No 59¢ $1,418 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $1,672 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? BUY No 3¢ $3 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? BUY No 3¢ $3 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? SELL No 2¢ $1 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 65¢ $406 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $295 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY No 9¢ $10 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY No 5¢ $40 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171.39 · official $172.00 (match) · 359 history records