Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:32:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2daa…2af3 other 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,395 (-2%) realized −$3,953 · open +$1,558
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate51%36W / 34L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,657per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$11,272now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$198
14 days+$198
30 days+$199
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$1,870
world 28% −$347
politics 7% −$1,350
sports 2% −$749
crypto 2% +$702
tech 2% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-34.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -25.8% -32.8% 60% 10% -6.8%
≤30d 11 -20.7% -28.2% 64% 18% -6.8%
≤90d 36 -49.0% -53.9% 31% 8% -29.4%
all 70 -27.5% -34.4% 51% 20% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.4% 20% -11.6%
10% -40.7% 9% -20.1%
15% -46.4% 4% -27.8%
20% -51.7% 3% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 60% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$178 vs −$239 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$11,272
Realized−$3,953
Unrealized+$1,558
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses36 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage224d
Avg bet$1,657
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 78¢ 90¢ $9,714 $11,272 +$1,558 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 +$4 +11%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$3 -32%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$2 +5%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $140 +$10 +7%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 −$12 -61%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 14 $6,240 +$220 +4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 26 $5 +$2 +30%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 07 $5,000 −$4,172 -83%
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? Apr 07 $100 −$37 -37%
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during Address to Apr 07 $1,005 −$1,005 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $4,000 −$91 -2%
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? Apr 02 $1 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 02 $1 $0 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? Apr 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 02 $6,916 +$506 +7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $100 +$20 +20%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $1,298 −$159 -12%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 01 $1,000 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 01 $2,001 −$675 -34%
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? Apr 01 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025? Mar 25 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Mar 25 $120 −$120 -100%
Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1? Mar 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sam Altman say "Polymarket" or "Bet" on The Tonight Show on Decem Mar 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? Mar 25 $90 −$90 -100%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025? Mar 25 $418 −$418 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 3? Mar 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 25 $10 −$10 -100%
US strike on Colombia by January 31? Mar 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 25 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 10 $10,443 +$355 +3%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Mar 08 $6,000 +$412 +7%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 08 $1,000 −$128 -13%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Mar 08 $1 $0 -22%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 08 $10 $0 +3%
Trump declares election interference national emergency? Mar 08 $100 +$17 +17%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 08 $1,000 +$154 +15%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 08 $335 +$22 +7%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $5,000 +$3,333 +67%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Feb 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Feb 20 $2,200 +$61 +3%
Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31? Feb 20 $711 +$50 +7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 04 $1 $0 +4%
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by Januar Feb 04 $1 $0 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 79¢ $19 46m
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 74¢ $25 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL No 38¢ $7 42h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY No 54¢ $10 42h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 64¢ $11 42h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 60¢ $10 43h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 0¢ $5 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 0¢ $5 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 97¢ $32 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $30 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 86¢ $41 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $40 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 48¢ $13 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $7 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 21d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $1 40d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $759 40d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 79¢ $9,757 40d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 80¢ $96 51d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $6,240 58d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $6,240 58d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $25,762 58d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 77¢ $25,762 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,272.39 · official $11,272.39 (match) · 331 history records