Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:02:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2D 0x2da9…d316 crypto 222 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$45 (+5%) realized +$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%90W / 132L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days+$33
14 days+$33
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% +$13
crypto 36% −$9
other 23% −$27
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +26.0% +14.0% 45% 45% +5.6%
≤30d 38 +26.0% +14.0% 45% 45% +5.6%
≤90d 42 +18.6% +7.3% 43% 43% -2.1%
all 222 -3.5% -12.7% 41% 41% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 41% -10.8%
10% -21.0% 38% -19.4%
15% -28.7% 36% -27.2%
20% -35.7% 32% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses90 / 132
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)222 / 222
History coverage127d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 222 Trades
no open positions (101 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $4 −$1 -25%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2 +$1 +73%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
O/U 4.5 Rounds Jun 15 $3 −$1 -17%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $36 −$3 -7%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$6 -55%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$2 -48%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +79%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $3 +$2 +75%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $8 −$3 -42%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $6 +$5 +79%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$3 +64%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 −$1 -19%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $8 −$1 -13%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $3 +$2 +70%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 −$1 -26%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $3 +$2 +73%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $3 +$4 +116%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $2 +$4 +204%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - MPL In Jun 11 $3 +$3 +97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $3 +$27 +874%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $3 $0 -5%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - M Jun 10 $5 +$7 +128%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $8 +$6 +79%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $8 −$1 -18%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Mar 18 $3 +$2 +61%
Will UC Sampdoria win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Sporting CP vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: Both Teams to Score Mar 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $5 −$3 -69%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters Santiago Mar 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $5 $0 -0%
Real Oviedo vs. Valencia CF: Both Teams to Score Mar 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Real Oviedo vs. Valencia CF end in a draw? Mar 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs Mar 14 $5 +$1 +28%
Galatasaray SK vs. Rams Başakşehir FK: O/U 2.5 Mar 14 $5 +$9 +177%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoff Mar 13 $16 −$1 -6%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playof Mar 13 $6 −$1 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 21¢ $2 58m
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 1¢ $1 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Over 55¢ $3 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Derrick Lewis 20¢ $4 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 11¢ $2 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $4 4h
O/U 4.5 Rounds SELL Over 32¢ $3 4h
O/U 4.5 Rounds BUY Over 37¢ $3 4h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 55¢ $3 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 18¢ $3 13h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 62¢ $5 13h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 28¢ $3 13h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 36¢ $11 16h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 26¢ $5 16h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 39¢ $5 16h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 34¢ $8 16h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 41¢ $10 17h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 45¢ $4 17h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 51¢ $5 17h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 51¢ $5 17h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 55¢ $9 17h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 59¢ $10 17h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 50¢ $4 17h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 57¢ $5 17h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $5 18h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $5 18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 472 history records