Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:38:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2D
0x2da8…d121
other · 6 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$188 -43%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$193 · open +$5
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$155
Realized−$193
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%
Chart Positions 2 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$193
7 days−$193
14 days−$193
30 days−$193
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 73¢ 76¢ $140 $147 +$7 (+5%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $102 −$97 -96%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $41 +$44 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $41 −$40 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 98% −$186
sports 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 73¢ $141 53m
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 11h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $41 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-51.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -46.6% -51.7% 25% 25% -71.3%
≤30d 4 -46.6% -51.7% 25% 25% -71.3%
≤90d 4 -46.6% -51.7% 25% 25% -71.3%
all 4 -46.6% -51.7% 25% 25% -71.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.7% 25% -71.3%
10% -56.3% 25% -74.1%
15% -60.5% 25% -76.6%
20% -64.4% 25% -78.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $155.12 · official $155.12 (match) · 9 history records