Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:34:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2D 0x2da3…e7c4 sports 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$75 (+5%) realized +$75 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate55%32W / 26L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days+$2
14 days+$64
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$95
other 18% −$24
crypto 8% −$11
politics 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -24.4% -31.6% 53% 47% -9.3%
≤30d 33 -18.1% -25.9% 48% 45% -4.6%
≤90d 58 -12.5% -20.9% 55% 43% -5.4%
all 58 -12.5% -20.9% 55% 43% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 43% -5.4%
10% -28.4% 34% -14.5%
15% -35.4% 24% -22.8%
20% -41.7% 14% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses32 / 26
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage40d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Yes 63¢ 62¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $30 +$11 +38%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $61 −$49 -81%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 −$11 -55%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $149 +$24 +16%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $50 +$16 +32%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 23 $59 +$4 +7%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $100 +$16 +16%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $30 −$30 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $61 +$20 +32%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $121 +$72 +60%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $50 −$44 -87%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $65 +$19 +29%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -59%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -42%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$6 -58%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 −$2 -11%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $19 +$21 +109%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $106 +$36 +34%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$12 +57%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $40 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $15 +$5 +36%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $15 +$5 +36%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $42 +$16 +38%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 +$6 +109%
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 24 $21 −$8 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 24 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 24 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 24 $4 +$1 +22%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $10 +$4 +40%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5 May 23 $4 +$1 +17%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 23 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 23 $4 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 22 $6 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 22 $5 −$1 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 22 $2 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $60 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $30 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 62¢ $11 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 30h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $10 30h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $10 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 30¢ $9 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $20 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $149 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 75¢ $50 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 94¢ $59 3d
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 100¢ $116 3d
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 86¢ $100 3d
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $30 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $61 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $10 4d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $121 6d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 10¢ $7 6d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $50 6d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $15 6d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $65 7d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes $1 7d
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes $1 7d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 20¢ $4 7d
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes $2 7d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 7d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 7d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 46¢ $18 7d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $20 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.53 · official $58.53 (match) · 121 history records