Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:45:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2da3…3895 other 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$303 (-8%) realized −$303 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate10%5W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$116
7 days−$133
14 days−$162
30 days−$269
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$36
other 24% −$143
politics 13% −$54
finance 8% −$54
economics 8% −$17
tech 6% −$4
weather 2% −$4
sports 1% −$29
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -10.9% -19.4% 0% 0% -22.3%
≤30d 32 -13.6% -21.8% 6% 0% -19.7%
≤90d 51 -14.3% -22.4% 10% 2% -18.2%
all 51 -14.3% -22.4% 10% 2% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 2% -18.2%
10% -29.9% 0% -26.0%
15% -36.6% 0% -33.2%
20% -42.9% 0% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$303
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses5 / 46
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage47d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? Jun 26 $136 −$82 -60%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? Jun 26 $174 −$5 -3%
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? Jun 25 $203 −$28 -14%
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary Jun 25 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? Jun 24 $5 $0 -4%
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 21 $147 −$3 -2%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 21 $62 −$8 -14%
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $73 −$1 -2%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $44 −$4 -8%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 19 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 19 $64 −$4 -6%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 19 $28 −$1 -3%
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? Jun 18 $15 −$7 -46%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 13 $293 −$17 -6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 12 $66 −$2 -3%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? Jun 12 $26 $0 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 11 $190 −$5 -3%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June? Jun 09 $49 +$2 +5%
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be below 1%? Jun 08 $10 $0 -4%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 in June? Jun 08 $14 −$5 -33%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 08 $0 $0 +8%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? Jun 04 $61 −$8 -12%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 03 $57 −$4 -8%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%? Jun 03 $34 −$10 -30%
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? Jun 03 $15 −$6 -37%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 03 $60 −$7 -12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 02 $56 −$2 -3%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in June? Jun 02 $57 −$4 -7%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? Jun 01 $36 −$8 -22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 28 $222 −$8 -3%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of May 25 2026? May 28 $81 −$27 -33%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $745 Week of May 25 2026? May 28 $21 −$14 -65%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 26 $391 −$11 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $98 −$6 -6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 26 $28 −$2 -7%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 25 $96 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $130 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends? May 25 $190 −$5 -3%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 25 $18 −$2 -11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 24 $70 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? May 24 $27 −$2 -7%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 23 $21 −$2 -11%
Will Broadcom Q2 AI revenue be above $11.0B? May 23 $34 +$1 +4%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? May 22 $3 $0 +3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $1 $0 -7%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $5 $0 -2%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Cervia: Filippo Romano vs Enrico Dalla Valle May 18 $4 $0 -10%
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs Guara Esports (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group May 17 $31 −$28 -92%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 17 $30 −$16 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $42 1h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 3h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $136 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $169 9h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $174 18h
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? SELL No 22¢ $12 23h
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? SELL No 19¢ $26 23h
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? BUY No 29¢ $59 23h
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? SELL No 28¢ $136 23h
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? BUY No 29¢ $144 23h
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary SELL Yes 59¢ $54 24h
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary BUY Yes 59¢ $55 24h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $5 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $5 2d
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? SELL Yes 57¢ $145 5d
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 57¢ $147 5d
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C SELL No 8¢ $54 5d
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No 9¢ $62 5d
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 74¢ $37 6d
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 71¢ $36 6d
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 70¢ $35 6d
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 74¢ $37 6d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 36¢ $31 6d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 37¢ $10 6d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 39¢ $44 6d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL No 67¢ $40 6d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 68¢ $41 6d
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 17¢ $36 7d
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 18¢ $39 7d
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 19¢ $24 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 245 history records