Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:10:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2da2…e524 world 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 357d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$71 (-1%) realized −$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate35%26W / 48L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$5
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$3
other 22% −$81
crypto 10% +$3
sports 9% +$6
economics 8% $0
politics 5% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 11% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 32 -2.6% -11.9% 28% 3% -9.4%
≤90d 42 -2.0% -11.3% 31% 2% -9.3%
all 74 +2.6% -7.1% 35% 4% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 4% -10.4%
10% -16.0% 1% -18.9%
15% -24.1% 1% -26.8%
20% -31.6% 1% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

357d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses26 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)74 / 76
History coverage357d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 70¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $92 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $92 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $44 −$1 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $4 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $13 $0 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $186 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $93 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $93 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $175 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $83 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $81 +$3 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $80 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $79 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $87 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $79 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +18%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $161 +$1 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $78 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $156 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $78 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $80 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $78 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $45 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $165 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $66 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 31 $80 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $87 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 28 $79 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $80 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $25 −$3 -11%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $40 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $93 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 21 $85 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 21 $85 $0 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $515 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $616 +$1 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $610 +$6 +1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $610 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 23 $651 +$3 +0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 23 $61 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats Mar 21 $442 $0 +0%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 20 $14 −$3 -23%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Sep 13 $18 +$71 +390%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in July? Aug 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Aug 10 $149 −$149 -100%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 19 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $92 33m
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $92 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $12 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $80 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $92 12h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 18h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 20h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 46¢ $43 46h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 47¢ $44 2d
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $85 2d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $7 2d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $78 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $93 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $93 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $93 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $93 6d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $93 6d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $93 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $93 7d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $93 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $85 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $85 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.81 · official $0.00 · 256 history records