Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:31:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2da2…d57b other 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$79 (-12%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%11W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$150
7 days+$125
14 days+$53
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$10
sports 49% +$53
crypto 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -3.5% -12.7% 38% 38% +52.2%
≤30d 31 -14.4% -22.5% 35% 35% +2.4%
≤90d 31 -14.4% -22.5% 35% 35% +2.4%
all 31 -14.4% -22.5% 35% 35% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 35% +2.4%
10% -29.9% 35% -7.4%
15% -36.7% 35% -16.4%
20% -42.9% 26% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$9 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses11 / 20
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 44
History coverage13d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $15 +$17 +114%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $20 +$8 +38%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 29 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $51 +$33 +65%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will DR Jun 28 $50 +$107 +214%
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Will Switzerland win o Jun 24 $2 +$7 +324%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Yoane Wissa: 1+ goals Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Fares Chaïbi: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 22 $5 +$3 +50%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $5 +$5 +101%
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals Jun 21 $5 −$4 -72%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Gabriel Martinelli: 1+ goals Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $5 +$7 +140%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Marko Arnautovic: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 +$19 +379%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$21 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $25 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY 21¢ $10 1h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $5 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $15 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 72¢ $20 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? AN BUY $5 5h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp $5 16h
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $5 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 33h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will DR BUY 31¢ $50 2d
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY 19¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY 39¢ $25 4d
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $5 4d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY 42¢ $10 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 5d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Will Switzerland win o BUY 23¢ $2 5d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Morocco (-2.5) AND Will Bosnia and H BUY 15¢ $15 5d
Yoane Wissa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $10 5d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score AND Will Colombia win on 20 BUY 26¢ $5 5d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals AND Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY 29¢ $20 6d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Croatia wi BUY 20¢ $26 6d
Fares Chaïbi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $10 6d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O BUY 26¢ $11 7d
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 7d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 42¢ $5 7d
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 10¢ $1 8d
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $5 8d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $5 8d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.17 · official $34.93 · 62 history records