Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:01:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2da1…964d other 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7,445 (-4%) realized −$6,430 · open −$1,015
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate72%71W / 27L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,094per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$3,791now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$212
14 days−$93
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 38% +$2,078
other 27% −$3,294
world 20% −$1,212
sports 8% −$628
politics 5% −$1,612
tech 1% +$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +4.8% -5.1% 100% 0% -5.1%
≤30d 6 -8.4% -17.1% 67% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 29 -3.8% -13.0% 69% 3% -10.1%
all 98 -3.2% -12.4% 72% 5% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 5% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 0% -19.6%
15% -28.4% 0% -27.4%
20% -35.4% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$3,313) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$358 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$3,791
Realized−$6,430
Unrealized−$1,015
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses71 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions3
Markets (closed)98 / 101
History coverage164d
Avg bet$2,094
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 98¢ 99¢ $3,050 $3,082 +$32 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No 80¢ 22¢ $1,450 $403 −$1,047 (-72%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 96¢ 96¢ $306 $306 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 21 $4,370 +$212 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $2,381 +$65 +3%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $2,494 −$759 -30%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 11 $7,050 +$392 +6%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $8 −$3 -34%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $12,910 +$45 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? May 25 $4,740 +$502 +11%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? May 25 $2,697 +$195 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? May 09 $461 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 08 $5,823 +$151 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 08 $5,963 +$65 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 30 $2,769 +$76 +3%
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-Ap Apr 21 $722 −$721 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 21 $10,278 −$863 -8%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 16 $5,835 −$1,651 -28%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 15 $3,358 +$7 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 14 $4,906 +$223 +4%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Apr 14 $2,019 −$72 -4%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 Apr 13 $1,336 +$119 +9%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 11 $5,474 +$34 +1%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6- Apr 09 $307 +$12 +4%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 08 $1,635 +$154 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 07 $2,501 +$207 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 31 $4,179 +$287 +7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 28 $643 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Mar 28 $4,755 +$372 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 27 $4,300 +$342 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Mar 26 $2,008 −$70 -4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Mar 21 $1,978 +$30 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 17 $3,706 +$19 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 17 $3,620 +$85 +2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 14 $4,003 +$155 +4%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Mar 13 $2,007 −$132 -7%
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies Mar 13 $634 +$7 +1%
Bucks vs. Heat Mar 13 $622 $0 +0%
Suns vs. Pacers Mar 13 $1,313 −$59 -4%
76ers vs. Pistons Mar 13 $617 +$9 +1%
CR Vasco da Gama vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 4.5 Mar 13 $11 $0 +2%
Will Clube do Remo vs. Fluminense FC end in a draw? Mar 12 $235 +$2 +1%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-03-12? Mar 12 $642 +$40 +6%
Will Ferencvárosi TC vs. SC Braga end in a draw? Mar 12 $629 +$13 +2%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-12? Mar 12 $620 +$9 +2%
George Washington Revolutionaries vs. Fordham Rams Mar 12 $709 −$90 -13%
National T20 Cup: Sialkot Region vs Lahore Region Blues Mar 12 $73 +$3 +4%
Hornets vs. Kings Mar 12 $693 +$13 +2%
Knicks vs. Jazz Mar 12 $96 +$2 +2%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 12 $664 +$27 +4%
BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Casper Ruud Mar 11 $651 +$13 +2%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $640 +$11 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $306 46m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 28¢ $71 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 28¢ $224 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 28¢ $10 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $22 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $52 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $97 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $150 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $67 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $57 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $79 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $117 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $118 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $118 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $145 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $37 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $34 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $401 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $13 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 87¢ $698 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 87¢ $28 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 87¢ $104 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 87¢ $28 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $2,364 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $3,053 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 86¢ $220 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 45¢ $1,736 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 51¢ $1,098 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $37 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $14 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,791.24 · official $3,791.24 (match) · 1278 history records