Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:27:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2D 0x2da0…38b2 world 31 markets active 3d ago coverage 478d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate61%19W / 12L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$6
other 25% −$1
politics 4% +$1
crypto 4% $0
tech 4% $0
sports 2% $0
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.4% -9.2% 40% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 15 +0.7% -8.9% 53% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 15 +0.7% -8.9% 53% 0% -8.8%
all 31 -2.4% -11.7% 61% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 0% -8.9%
10% -20.2% 0% -17.6%
15% -27.9% 0% -25.5%
20% -35.0% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.9 per $1 lost it wins $4.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses19 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage478d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $44 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $124 −$1 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $79 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $81 +$2 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $17 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $94 +$2 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $43 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $22 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $13 −$1 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $2 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $16 +$1 +6%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Dec 23 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 21 $1 $0 -3%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Dec 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 18 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Apr 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will McDonald's worker get reward money before April? Mar 31 $16 $0 +1%
Trump meets with Carney in March? Mar 29 $15 $0 +3%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 27 $32 $0 -0%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 28? Mar 26 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 66°F or higher on March 22? Mar 24 $16 $0 +1%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $16 $0 +0%
Will Carmelo Anthony make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Ha Mar 20 $15 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $44 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $44 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $44 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $44 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 82¢ $2 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 82¢ $38 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $39 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $43 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $43 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $30 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $30 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $31 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $31 5d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $39 20d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $39 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 21d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $39 22d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $39 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 96¢ $43 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 97¢ $44 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $11 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $25 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $37 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $17 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $17 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $44 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 92¢ $43 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $13 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 86 history records