Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:01:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d9f…31c3 world 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-2%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%11W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$4
other 24% $0
finance 7% $0
politics 5% $0
sports 2% −$6
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 -1.2% -10.6% 18% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 11 -1.2% -10.6% 18% 0% -10.3%
all 25 -1.9% -11.2% 44% 0% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 0% -11.1%
10% -19.7% 0% -19.6%
15% -27.5% 0% -27.4%
20% -34.6% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses11 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage476d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $54 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $113 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $3 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $33 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $37 −$4 -10%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $40 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 28 $41 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $40 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $37 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 +4%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Jun 27 $6 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $2 $0 +5%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 31 $1 $0 +1%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? Apr 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 17 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C Apr 16 $7 $0 +2%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 14 $6 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 14-21? Mar 19 $9 $0 -3%
Timberwolves vs. Hornets Mar 04 $12 −$6 -47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $36 1h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $21 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $21 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $33 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $33 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $36 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $36 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $3 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $0 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $1 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $1 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $22 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $3 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $8 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $33 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $33 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $6 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $31 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $40 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $40 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $40 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $40 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $41 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $41 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $41 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $41 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $40 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $40 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.24 · official $36.72 (match) · 65 history records