Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:16:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2D
0x2d99…4ca3
world · 123 markets active 11h ago
0.0score
+$647,271 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$646,021 · open +$1,250
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialist⚠ High turnover
Net worth$46,250
Realized+$646,021
Unrealized+$1,250
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses115 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$310
Open positions1
Markets (closed)122 / 123
History coverage65d
Avg bet$116,132
Trades / day50.2
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 1 History 122 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$641
14 days+$2,596
30 days+$10,914
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $45,000 $46,250 +$1,250 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $6,212,299 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $700 +$596 +85%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $9,650 −$557 -6%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $13,039 +$23 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $39,960 +$40 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $921 +$29 +3%
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $2,962 +$38 +1%
Will Syria win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $2,964 +$36 +1%
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw? Jun 08 $2,974 +$45 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $254,265 +$255 +0%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $2,123 +$136 +6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $268,767 +$2,327 +1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $317,627 −$734 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $24,122 +$113 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $7,726 +$95 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 31 $15,643 +$154 +1%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $1,312 +$585 +45%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026? May 27 $9,930 +$40 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $56,493 +$1,134 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $171,248 +$226 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $162,128 −$4,202 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $20,283 +$27 +0%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $975B by June 30? May 24 $11,662 +$11 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 23 $39,552 +$2,136 +5%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $39,781 +$1,430 +4%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $57,077 +$1,730 +3%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $88,270 +$2,574 +3%
Was the Fox News guest wearing a mask? May 22 $406 +$14 +3%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M May 21 $1,984 +$16 +1%
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? May 21 $1,986 +$14 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 20 $8,600 +$800 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 19 $967 +$33 +3%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15? May 19 $99,800 +$198 +0%
Did a crypto hedge fund blow up? May 18 $53 +$690 +1293%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $8,793 +$104 +1%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $12,107 +$49 +0%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? May 15 $132,833 +$186 +0%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 17? May 15 $677 +$3 +0%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16? May 15 $1,090 +$2 +0%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 15 $1,220 +$41 +3%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 15 $1,731 +$269 +16%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o May 15 $15,398 +$93 +1%
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $1,145 +$3 +0%
Will Rick Rieder be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2 May 14 $788 +$2 +0%
Will Rick Rieder be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates hit 2.5% or May 14 $1,711 +$6 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 17, 2026? May 13 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 13 $23,071 +$39 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? May 13 $58,455 +$59 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026? May 13 $2,317 +$2 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? May 13 $23,423 +$23 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 48% +$2,965
world 37% +$629,403
sports 7% +$7,056
other 4% +$3,404
crypto 2% +$3,061
culture 0% +$1,279
finance 0% +$95
economics 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $756 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $159 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $23 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $258 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $100 21h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $3,236 26h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $3,277 26h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $1,910 26h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $670 26h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $9,645 26h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $5 30h
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $7,678 2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $999 2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $999 2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $314 2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $8,601 2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $101 2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $759 2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $325 2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,033 2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,180 2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $83 2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)+17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +8.5% -1.8% 82% 9% -9.5%
≤30d 49 +30.4% +18.0% 92% 8% -9.4%
≤90d 122 +30.3% +17.9% 94% 7% -5.9%
all 122 +30.3% +17.9% 94% 7% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover50.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +17.9% 7% -5.9%
10% +6.6% 5% -14.9%
15% ← realistic here -3.7% 5% -23.1%
20% -13.1% 3% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46,250.00 · official $46,250.00 (match) · 3500 history records