Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:03:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

2D 0x2d96…724d other 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 110d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$147 (+13%) realized +$152 · open −$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip

Net edge-19%after slip

Net WR38%break-even

Win rate38%5W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$75per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit40%portable

Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$133

7 days+$144

14 days+$121

30 days+$22

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +38%

net ROI/market (all)-18.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	+13.7%	+2.9%	56%	56%	+11.3%
≤30d	13	-10.1%	-18.6%	38%	38%	-7.0%
≤90d	13	-10.1%	-18.6%	38%	38%	-7.0%
all	13	-10.1%	-18.6%	38%	38%	-7.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-18.6%	38%	-7.0%
10%	-26.4%	38%	-15.9%
15%	-33.5%	38%	-24.0%
20%	-40.0%	38%	-31.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 34% · top 2 66% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -10% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -15% → late -6% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$66 vs −$39 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.07 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage

Net worth$81

Realized+$152

Unrealized−$5

Win rate (resolved)38%

Wins / losses5 / 8

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions1

Markets (closed)13 / 15

History coverage110d

Avg bet$75

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 13 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Yes	25¢	24¢	$86	$81	−$5 (-6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 22	$38	+$51	+134%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	Jun 21	$202	−$166	-82%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$6	−$4	-68%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$3	+$3	+105%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 20	$3	−$3	-100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay?	Jun 20	$15	−$15	-100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$160	+$113	+70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$101	+$60	+60%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$100	+$105	+105%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$10	−$8	-75%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	Jun 13	$5	$0	-3%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$20	−$15	-76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	May 29	$100	−$100	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	25¢	$88	22m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	42¢	$38	1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	SELL Uruguay	11¢	$36	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	SELL No	10¢	$2	1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	BUY Uruguay	59¢	$155	1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	BUY Uruguay	61¢	$47	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	30¢	$6	3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	48¢	$3	7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Uruguay leading at halftime? AND W	BUY	35¢	$271	7h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$160	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	62¢	$101	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$100	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	26¢	$3	7d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	1¢	$3	7d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	3¢	$10	7d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay?	BUY Yes	10¢	$15	9d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	46¢	$5	9d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	46¢	$5	9d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	5¢	$5	9d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	20¢	$20	9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	BUY Up	86¢	$100	109d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.26 · official $81.26 (match) · 29 history records