Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:21:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d94…4bb5 crypto 65 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$12 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate85%53W / 9L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day99.0pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% +$19
other 20% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -0.5% -9.9% 85% 32% -7.4%
≤30d 62 -0.5% -9.9% 85% 32% -7.4%
≤90d 62 -0.5% -9.9% 85% 32% -7.4%
all 62 -0.5% -9.9% 85% 32% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover99.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 32% -7.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 18% -16.2%
15% -26.4% 10% -24.3%
20% -33.6% 3% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses53 / 9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)62 / 65
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day99.0
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 65¢ 64¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Down 7¢ 42¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+507%)
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-94%)
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +47%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +10%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +40%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +50%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +10%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +9%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +11%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +44%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +27%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +11%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +20%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 1m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 6m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 7m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 7m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 7m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 7m
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 7m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 8m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 9m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 10m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 12m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 12m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 12m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 13m
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 14m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 16m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 16m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 19m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 20m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 21m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.37 · official $5.15 (match) · 153 history records