Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:04:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d94…49cd world 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 518d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate31%23W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$4
other 19% −$13
politics 19% −$2
sports 18% +$3
economics 3% $0
weather 0% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +8.3% -2.0% 67% 33% -8.8%
≤30d 24 +2.9% -6.9% 42% 8% -9.3%
≤90d 66 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 5% -9.5%
all 74 -4.4% -13.5% 31% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 5% -9.9%
10% -21.8% 5% -18.5%
15% -29.4% 4% -26.4%
20% -36.3% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

518d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses23 / 51
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)74 / 74
History coverage518d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 74 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $12 +$3 +25%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $115 −$2 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $46 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $29 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $57 −$1 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $120 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $1 +$1 +42%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $24 −$1 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $70 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $59 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $35 +$3 +9%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $43 +$2 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 28 $26 −$1 -3%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $34 −$1 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $34 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $27 −$1 -4%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $30 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $60 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 19 $30 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $3 $0 +7%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $31 $0 -2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $60 +$1 +1%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $31 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $67 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $60 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 24 $33 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $30 $0 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $136 +$1 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $2 $0 -9%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 17 $35 $0 +1%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $35 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 16 $34 $0 +1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 15 $107 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 13 $30 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $29 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $59 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $2 $0 -7%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $55 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $3 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $11 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 16¢ $12 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $33 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $33 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $20 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $30 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $7 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $23 9d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $15 10d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $14 10d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $29 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $7 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 11d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $6 11d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $26 11d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $32 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $31 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $30 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $23 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 301 history records