Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:24:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2D 0x2d92…8607 sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 537d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$203 (-42%) realized −$298 · open +$95
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip
Net edge-67%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%1W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$278now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$49
other 27% −$105
world 11% −$51
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-67.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 5 -49.5% -54.3% 20% 20% -65.9%
all 7 -63.9% -67.3% 14% 14% -72.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -67.3% 14% -72.0%
10% -70.5% 14% -74.6%
15% -73.3% 14% -77.1%
20% -75.9% 14% -79.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -64% · $-wt -69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$36 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

537d coverage
Net worth$278
Realized−$298
Unrealized+$95
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage537d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 60¢ 91¢ $183 $278 +$95 (+52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs HOTU - Map 2 Winner Apr 13 $16 −$16 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 13 $48 −$18 -38%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FUT Esports (BO5) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs Apr 13 $20 +$14 +70%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FUT Esports - Map 3 Winner Apr 11 $26 −$26 -99%
Will "Banana" be said 10+ times during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Fi Apr 11 $131 −$105 -80%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 'Baldur's Gate 3' win Labor of Love in the 2024 Steam Awards? Dec 30 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $278.13 · official $278.13 (match) · 14 history records