Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:28:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2D
0x2d8d…778d
crypto · 72 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$1,671 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,247 · open +$260
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,392
Realized+$1,247
Unrealized+$260
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses48 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions3
Markets (closed)69 / 72
History coverage61d
Avg bet$354
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 3 History 69 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$107
7 days+$189
14 days+$521
30 days+$1,706
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 46¢ 60¢ $872 $1,128 +$256 (+29%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $760 $744 −$16 (-2%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? Up 94¢ 98¢ $500 $520 +$20 (+4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? No 0¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $204 −$19 -9%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $1,277 +$102 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $195 +$81 +42%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $1,041 +$11 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $450 +$73 +16%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $402 +$69 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $887 +$10 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $983 −$221 -22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $900 +$83 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $1,174 −$296 -25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $1,007 −$449 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 03 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 03 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 03 $7 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 03 $6 +$3 +42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $996 −$9 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $760 +$98 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $858 +$25 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 02 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 02 $90 +$6 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $6 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $464 +$405 +87%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1,003 +$49 +5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 1? Jun 01 $16 −$11 -70%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? Jun 01 $2,007 +$208 +10%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,011 +$350 +35%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $833 −$195 -24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $1,160 +$219 +19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 28 $405 +$48 +12%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 28 $383 +$23 +6%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 26 $483 −$101 -21%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 26 $138 +$1,021 +740%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $48 +$7 +14%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 25 $70 +$13 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $111 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 16 $352 +$137 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 14 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 14 $1 +$3 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 14 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 14 $8 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 14 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 14 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 14 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 44% +$694
crypto 30% −$26
finance 9% −$15
tech 7% +$164
sports 4% +$346
economics 4% +$256
other 2% +$65
politics 2% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 53¢ $184 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 56¢ $204 1h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? BUY Up 94¢ $501 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL Yes 98¢ $1,379 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 91¢ $276 1h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? SELL Up 92¢ $712 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 93¢ $1,052 3h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 97¢ $1,052 4h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 98¢ $39 4h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 96¢ $1,002 5h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 58¢ $523 5h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 85¢ $402 24h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 50¢ $450 25h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $897 25h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 76¢ $760 25h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 60¢ $762 25h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 81¢ $225 44h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 63¢ $195 44h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? BUY Up 71¢ $556 44h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 46¢ $896 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 78¢ $983 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $983 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $887 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? SELL Yes 97¢ $821 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 94¢ $803 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? SELL No 50¢ $149 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? SELL No 8¢ $58 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? SELL No 52¢ $409 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? BUY No 46¢ $3 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? BUY No 46¢ $37 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +7.0% -3.2% 78% 33% -6.8%
≤30d 54 +17.5% +6.3% 76% 35% -1.3%
≤90d 69 +7.6% -2.7% 70% 33% -4.3%
all 69 +7.6% -2.7% 70% 33% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 33% -4.3%
10% -12.0% 17% -13.5%
15% -20.5% 10% -21.9%
20% -28.3% 4% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,391.73 · official $2,391.46 (match) · 191 history records